The Yankees are just sleeping

When I was younger, I had a thing for Godzilla movies. But I sort of realized that, at the end of each movie, there probably should have been a scene where the Japanese government realized that Godzilla was going to come back, and that he wasn’t dead, he was just sleeping.

The same could be said of the Yankees this offseason. So tight have their pockets been that Brian Cashman apparently went to the Winter Meetings without authority to sign free agents. Names like Jeff Keppinger and Eric Chavez went elsewhere, and the big names like Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke have been almost entirely unconnected to them. They haven’t been in for any trades. The only player they seem to have officially been in pursuit of so far is Kevin Youkilis.

But, rest assured, they have a plan. A horrible plan. Much like Godzilla no doubt dreamed of stomping Tokyo or Osaka as he slept between B-movies, the Yankees have dreams as well, and it involves a loophole in the collective bargaining agreement.

You see, there is a threshold of about $189 million dollars. If a team is above it, they have to pay luxury taxes, and a lot of them, and the penalties accrue based on how much and how long the team is over it. The Yankees, as they have been going, would have been paying up to a 50% luxury tax.

But if a team goes under it, the formula for luxury tax resets. They could then proceed to go over the tax threshold and not have to pay close to the luxury tax amount they  would be paying if they didn’t reset the clock.

If what I’m reading is correct, this would mean that they’d be relatively unencumbered in the 2014-2015 off-season in their quest to stomp Tokyo, or at least the American League, free to spend, spend, spend without much worry about all the taxes they’d be inflicted upon.

And here comes the part that is terrifying for the people of Tokyo, or at least the American League: Justin Verlander could be a free agent after 2014. So could Clayton Kershaw. And Felix Hernandez. And Chase Headley, Johnny Cueto and Elvis Andrus.

In other words… they Yankees could spend and attempt to buy a pennant in a way even George would find crazy.

And that is why they are sleeping.

Victory has defeated the New York Yankees

With the utter and definitive sweep that the Detroit Tigers have just finished doing to the New York Yankees, now is as good a time as any to finally post this, which has been in the works in one form or another since Game 3 of the ALDS.

In The Dark Knight Rises, Bane, during one of his beat-downs of Batman, declares this to the Caped Crusader:

Peace has cost you your strength! Victory has defeated you!

In context, it makes sense: a ruse by Batman and Commissioner Gordon had allowed Gotham to, seemingly, become free of the crime and corruption that had been long plaguing the city. But once a true threat emerged once again, the city, and the since-retired Batman, were not prepared to face it, having grown complacent and overconfident over the years. Only after being defeated do Batman and Gordon become the people they must be in order to rid Gotham of Bane’s threat.

The same can be said for the New York Yankees. It was once said that rooting for the Yankees was like rooting for U.S. Steel, but, as Jim Caple noted in his seminal The Devil Wears Pinstripes, even U.S. Steel isn’t what it once was, but the Yankees have kept winning. Now, rooting for the Yankees must be like rooting for Wal-Mart, or, as Michael Rosenberg wrote, Goldman Sachs. There is no question whether they will be successful, the question is only whether they will be successful enough by their standards. “Their standards” are now a zero-sum game: they must win the World Series or their season- no matter what happened in it- will be a failure. They have won so much that they have changed their meaning for winning. They’ve won so much that they have their own definition of winning.

However, this seemingly-driving philosophy of a title or bust has, ironically, led to a complacency amongst both the team and their fans. They have seemingly decided that, since they are the Yankees, they should just be expected to make it to the World Series, as if putting on the pinstripes will cause their opponents to forfeit the regular season and first few rounds of the playoffs. The fans, judging by how many empty seats were present in the playoffs this year, feel the same way. Of course, this also is partly because of the complacency that the Yankees have acquired over the years as they’ve gotten drunk on success: they have become even more corporate, uncaring about the average fan. Once, back at the old stadium, it was a place for the people. Oh, sure, there were plenty of expensive seats that only hedgefund managers, rock stars, actors and politicians could afford, but there were also plenty of places for the common man, whether high up or deep in the bleachers. Then new stadium, however, dropped all pretense: the most expensive seats were literally separated from the rest by a moat of concrete walkways, and the number of upper-deck seats- traditionally the cheapest seats- were decreased.

The Yankees, no doubt, figured that their success would mean that people would pay any price for their ticket. They were wrong.

So now, the most successful franchise in baseball (but not sports) must look deep into it’s soul. It has been beaten and embarrassed. But will they rise, or will they continue with their old ways, ignoring the fans and their own history while sacrificing their happiness and soul?

Given the fact that the old ways bring lots of money, I’d doubt it. But, hey, you never know.

How the series look right now

It is, as I have noted before, almost impossible to predict October. Who would have thought, for example, that Derek Jeter would get hurt, that Robinson Cano would enter a record-breaking slump, or that the Reds would lose three straight at home to the Giants to end their season.

However, already we are getting some indication of how the rest of the two series might go.

ALCS: The Yankees are in big trouble. Very, very, big trouble. They can’t hit to save their lives, the one guy they had who was hitting (Jeter) is down for the count, they lost the first two games of the series at home. No team has ever come back from an 0-2 deficit in the Best-of-7 LCS when those two losses came at home. And, what’s more, there odds of winning game 3 must be considered perilously low, as they will be facing Justin Verlander. Perhaps they would have a good chance in Game 3 had they been able to run out C.C. Sabathia against him, but instead they will be sending out Phil Hughes. Hughes is hardly a scrub, but no sane man would say they’d want him on the mound instead of Verlander, especially in Comerica Park, which favors the pitcher.

With that in mind, one would probably want to say that the Tigers are in the driver’s seat. However, that would probably be overestimating things. You see, although it looks like the Tigers have this series in the bag, that isn’t necessarily true. If Verlander has a bad day (or Hughes has an unusually great day), they could very well lose tomorrow’s Game 3. They would then be facing C.C. Sabathia. Admittedly, the Tigers would be sending out Max Scherzer, who, while no Sabathia, would definitely have good odds of being able to meet and defeat the Yankees than Phil Hughes is to do the same against Verlander and the Tigers.

Even if the Yankees were to somehow win the next two games though, I would have to say the advantage still would preside with the Tigers. The reason, much like the reason they should be considered heavily favored tomorrow, lies with Verlander. Verlander would be pitching any Game 7… and Sabathia wouldn’t (at least, not on normal rest).

Advantage: Tigers

NLCS: This series has only gone one game, and given how nuts last night’s game was, as well as the many twists and turns the NLDSes (NLDSii?) were, it may seem folly to predict what may still lie in store. One thing is for certain though: the Giants would be greatly helped if they win tonight. As I said earlier, losing the first two games at home in a LCS series is almost a death sentence, although admittedly the Giants were able to survive a similar situation in the NLDS. The result tonight is extremely up in the air: on paper, one would think having Ryan Vogelsong on the mound would put one in a better position than Chris Carpenter, who although the better pitcher only had limited playing time this year due to injury (it is a bit of a miracle that he is playing at all right now).  Carpenter, though, has done very well in the postseason so far, throwing 5.2 in his NLDS start without giving up a earned-run. Still,

Past tonight and Game 3 (when Matt Cain will presumably start), though, the Giants are facing a somewhat chaotic pitching situation. Madison Bumgarner has been dreadful this October so far, Barry Zito struggled greatly in his NLDS start, and Tim Lincecum was so dreadful during the later parts of this season (after seemingly recovering from first-half struggles) that he’s been used from the bullpen in the postseason. Although, admittedly, Lincecum has done very well out of the bullpen, so maybe he deserves another shot at starting this year. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have a relatively stable starting pitching staff, and they have Carlos Beltran and David Freese, players who have always (and are) stepped up in October.

So, come to think of it, maybe it’s more clear that I thought that it’s ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS.

 

Images of Game One of the ALDS

Baltimore was miserable on Sunday: it was cold, the sky was dark, and then it rained. And rained. And rained. And then, finally, Game One of the American League Division Series, which was eight innings of exhilaration and one of the loudest crowds I’ve ever been in followed by another inning where Camden Yards became a morgue. And my camera’s batteries were rather finicky, totally ruining many other opportunities for photos.

So, here we go (after the jump):

Continue reading

On Infield Flies and Jeffrey Maier (OR: Why the Cardinals could win the World Series but would not be known for the infield fly play)

In baseball, little things can mean a lot. And those little things sometimes are forgotten by all but those who felt themselves wronged.

Some have had problems with how the St. Louis Cardinals benefited from the infield fly call in the NL Wild Card game. While it seems, after reflection and hearing from various experts on TV and online, that the call was technically correct, it struck me as not exactly fitting the spirit of the rules for the infield fly: the infield fly is meant to protect the runners from a possible double play, something I do not believe the Cardinals had any chance of pulling.

The game was protested, of course, and, just like (almost) every other protested game in history, the protest was denied. No matter what your opinion on that infield fly play, you cannot deny, however, that the Cardinals probably dodged a bullet: had there been no call, it is entirely possible they would have lost that game, and would not be headed into a series with Washington. Why, you almost have this sinking feeling that maybe, just maybe, the Cardinals are now going to go on a run to a championship. And you probably think that, for better or worse, they are going to be known as the team that won because of a possibly-incorrect infield fly call. Fans of the Braves and baseball in general may be in horror at the idea that such a thing could happen, and even some Cardinals fans probably are a bit worried that their team, if they go on a run, will probably go on to be remembered the “infield fly team.”

They probably are wrong. In general, only the losing teams are remembered in places where massive mistakes are made, and even then usually only if they themselves are the ones screwing up: the 1986 Red Sox may have lost the World Series because Billy Buckner couldn’t field a routine grounder (there had already been several things that had gone wrong, but it’s that image everyone remembers), the 2003 Cubs may have lost the NLCS because devoted Cubs’ fan Steve Bartman sort-of got in Moises Alou’s way (there is no guarantee he would have caught it, but you never know) and the 1919 Chicago White Sox lost the series because seven or eight players (depending on whether you count Buck Weaver) threw games. Nobody ever seems to associate the 1986 Mets, 2003 Marlins or 1919 Reds with those events, other than as background.

Given that the Orioles (!) and Yankees are about to meet up in the ALDS, a look at their shared history perhaps best illustrates this fact. I speak of the tale of Jeffrey Maier, a then-12-year-old who, in the bottom of the eighth inning in Game 1 of the 1996 ALCS, reached into the field of play and snagged a Derek Jeter fly ball that seemed destined for the glove of Orioles outfielder Tony Tarasco (or, at the very least, the warning track- but not over the fence). Right-field umpire Rich Garcia said that it was a home run, tying the game at four and paving the way for an extra-innings Yankees win. The Orioles’ protest was denied. The Yankees went on to win the series, and the World Series. I was only six at the time, but even I remember thinking that it was some kind of cheating, as if the Yankees had hired that kid to be out there to rob Tony Tarasco, or something. I seem to recall grabbing a newspaper that had a photo of the play on it, grabbing a large red crayon, and drawing a big giant X through it, to show my disgust.

Hey, I was six. I’m not even sure if I had a clue what was going on, but I remember having that big crossed-out picture for awhile, so I must have known something.

Maier, meanwhile, became a pint-sized celebrity, appearing on late night talk shows, being given the Key to the City by Rudy Giuliani, and being generally hailed as a hero by the city, county and state of New York. This despite the fact that, by any measure whatsoever, Maier had done something illegal and helped, intended or not, the Yankees win (or, as six-year-old me would say, cheat) their way to victory. There must have been lots of interesting conversations in New York after that:
“Dad, can I reach out and grab the ball?”
“No, son, it’s against the rules. They’ll kick us out of the stadium.”
“But Jeff Maier did it, and he got to be on TV, and he got that giant key from the mayor!”
“Yes, son, but…”

However, as the years have gone on, Maier has become a footnote, remembered only by grateful Yankee fans, angry Oriole fans and completist baseball historians. He’s now grown-up, a married man and former college player who is involved with baseball off the field. When the 1996 Yankees are discussed, they aren’t called the team that possibly won the ALCS only because of the actions of a 12-year-old, they are known more for being the first title-winning club of the Derek Jeter era.

And this, likely, is what the future may hold for the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals. If they go on a run, as they did in 2006 and 2011, they will be known as a team that won the World Series despite having lost their future Hall-Of-Fame manager, their esteemed hitting coach, and their most famous and talented player in the previous off-season. They may also be known as the first franchise to win three World Series in the 21st century. But it is highly unlikely that anyone other than relieved Cardinal fans, angry Braves fans and completist baseball historians will think much of the infield fly call and whether the Cardinals had gotten lucky.

Because, the thing is, sometimes the lucky teams and the cheaters prosper. And when that happens, the little details that caused them to be lucky or caused them to be cheaters end up becoming footnotes, for better or worse.

So don’t sweat the infield fly, sports fans. Well, except for Braves fans. You’ve already done way more than sweat over it… but that’s another story.


If there is a three-way tie for the American League, then the Rangers are the 2 seed

There is a possibility, however remote, that the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Texas Rangers will all end up with the same record. For example, let’s say the Rangers slump at the end of the season and go 1-2 and the the two AL East teams go 2-1. Then all three teams will have 94-68 records.
Now, in the past, this wouldn’t have mattered. They’d just declare the winner based on whoever held the tiebreaker (probably head-to-head between the teams). However, now that winning the division will mean avoiding the dreaded one-game wild card game, there will be a tiebreaker game between the Yankees and Orioles.

Now, here’s the thing. A tiebreaker game would count in the regular season standings, as will the stats. So, the winner of that tiebreaker game would have a 95-68 record. This would mean that the winner of the tiebreaker game would have a better record (by a half-game) than Texas, and would, unless if I’m missing some sort of rule, be the top seed in the American League. The Rangers, behind that half game, would be the second seed, and would face the third seed (the AL Central winner, probably the Tigers).

So, in short, if there’s a three way tie in the AL, then the AL East Champion will be the top seed in the league.

Weird, huh?

Panic in the Bronx

Derek Jeter said on Monday that he wasn’t panicking. In fact, I seem to recall him saying that nobody was panicking, and was even asking the press if they were panicking.

Rule of thumb number one of panicking: If you have to say you aren’t panicking, you probably are panicking, and if you aren’t, you probably will be soon.

On Tuesday night, Joe Girardi was ejected after doing the full Earl Weaver routine.

Rule of thumb number two of panicking: When you have a short fuse shortly after people start wondering if you should be panicking, you are panicking.

Oh, and the Yankees lost tonight, to fall into a tie with the Baltimore Orioles- in September, and only a game and a half up on the Tampa Rays. Which leads to the third rule of thumb of panicking:

When you are panicking, your enemies will take advantage.

The Yankees are just trying to play their role now

The Yankees have traded for Ichiro. A few years ago, this would have been earth-shattering news that would have caused large amounts of hair to be pulled out, rioting would have engulfed the Northwest (it still might- they still are justifiably angry about losing the Sonics) and every person with a keyboard would have declared this another sign of the inequity of baseball’s markets.

Now though, it seems almost as if the Yankees are doing this just to remind everyone that, yes, they are the Yankees, and, yes, they are willing to get well-known players who are past their prime in order to aid in the yearly quest for a world title.

This isn’t to say this is a bad deal: Ichiro still definitely has his moments, and has enough talent that he could easily go on a tear for the rest of the season. In addition, the two pitchers they gave up (D.J. Mitchell and Danny Farquhar) don’t seem to be anything special- it’s not like they are trading Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps. It’s just that I don’t this is the big deal that some may make it out to be. Ichiro is a legend, a future HOFer, and still one of the best quotes and most exciting players in baseball on his best day, but this is hardly the deal that will win the Yankees the pennant.

What Franchise has the best Championship Percentage?

The New York Yankees, are of course, the most successful sports franchise in North America (if not the world) by number of titles: 27. And it’s entirely possible that they could have gotten another one in 1994 had the strike not intervened (of course the same could be said for the Montreal Expos and several other teams). But here’s something that’s always bugged me: The Yankees and most other baseball teams have a big headstart against everyone else. So with the NHL and NBA now done with their postseasons, it’s time to take a look at what team has the best “Championship Percentage”. In other words, what teams have the most championships per year in existence where a championship was possible. Read on for more:

First, some guidelines:

  • Only “Big 4” teams are counted in this. That means foreign teams (Japanese baseball, European soccer, etc.) and minor league teams aren’t counted, nor are teams from the MLS, WNBA, NLL, Arena Football League, etc.
  • Championships will only count in years where the championship as we know it existed. That means that only modern-day World Series count for MLB, only Super Bowls count for NFL, only the Finals count for the NBA and only Stanley Cups from 1927 onward (when it became an NHL-only affair) count for the NHL. Years in which a championship was cancelled don’t count.
  • Years in a league that didn’t have a game in the championship (Pre-Super Bowl AFL, the ABA, the WHA…) don’t count.
  • This is for franchises, not teams. So, for example, the Lakers have the titles from their time in Minneapolis. The only exceptions to this are in those cases where the league has said specifically that they are separate franchises. For example, the Baltimore Ravens are treated by the NFL as if they were a expansion franchise, and the Cleveland Browns are treated as if they never left Cleveland and that they just sort of took a break for a few years in the nineties. Of course, you will not be seeing the Browns at all from this point on, anyway.
  • Teams that haven’t won at all won’t be counted.

More after the jump:

Continue reading

For Sale: The Yankees?

According to the Daily News, the Yankees may be put up for sale by the family Steinbrenner. The most valuable team in American sports- if not all of sports (I’m not really up on the price of Europe’s soccer teams these days) could, possibly, maybe, be put up for sale. Allow me to do the sales pitch for them:

Are you a wealthy member of the 1%? Do you want to be seen, talked about and generally known? Do you like hanging out with celebrities like Billy Crystal, Jay-Z, Spike Lee and Alec Baldwin? Do you have an insatiable desire for victory and an irrational hatred of facial hair?

Then we have the sports franchise for you! The New York Yankees, winners of 27 World Series and 40 AL pennants, and the team of Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, Berra and Jeter, are for sale. The current owner, the Steinbrenner Family, bought the team from CBS in 1973 for just over 8 million dollars, and has since greatly increased the team’s valuation. Sale includes new Yankee Stadium, the Yankees Entertainment and Sports Network (YES), and all current player contracts. Yes, even Alex Rodriguez’s. But don’t worry, despite the revenue-sharing placed upon you by the other 29 MLB teams, you still will hold a vast advantage over most other teams due to your market size, prestige, and creative accounting.

Beginning asking price is 3 billion US dollars and includes a vigorous vetting process by Major League Baseball, the New York City press, big-name Yankee fans and politicians from the City, County and State of New York.

All questions and requests can be sent to One East 161st Street, Bronx, New York. Sorry, due to demand, we cannot take Jeter autograph requests.