Prediction vs. Reality: Game 4 of the 2012 World Series

Throughout the 2012 World Series, I’ll be taking a look at what I thought I’d be writing alongside what actually happened.

What I thought I’d be writing before the series: Well, it’s over. The 2012 Major League Baseball season- started in Japan in March- has ended. And the Tigers have come out on top, winning in six games for their first title since 1984.

It was a little scary near the beginning of the series, as Verlander got dusted up before buckling down for the Game 1 win, but then San Francisco won the next two games,  as the Tigers’ seemed rusty after the long layoff after the ALCS. But they soon had shaken off that rust, winning the next three games to win the series…

What actually happened in the series: Well, it’s over. The 2012 Major League Baseball season- started in Japan in March- has ended. And the San Francisco Giants have come out on top, sweeping the Tigers for their second title in three years.

The culprit, perhaps, was the long layoff after the ALCS, something that the Tigers’ hitters only started to shake off in Game 4, far too late and not enough to make a difference beyond forcing extra innings. However, to simply say that the Tigers were rusty would be doing a disservice to the San Francisco Giants, the new champions. They outpitched, outhit, outfielded and outmanaged the Tigers, taking advantage of every opportunity they received and squashing what few rallies the Tigers were able to muster. Whether it was Sergio Romo, any of the starting pitchers, Marco Scutaro, Buster Posey or “Kung Fu Panda” himself, Pablo Sandoval, they always seemed to come through when they needed to.

And that is why they are the champions.

More on the series and the 2012 season in the coming days.

Humor: The Laws of Game 7s

Tonight is one of the greatest events in any sport: a Game 7. While I messed up and assumed that Adam Wainwright was starting tonight, it does not change the fact that it’s a Game 7. Win or lose, do-or-die, victory means the World Series, defeat means an early tee-time or a day out hunting something other than hanging curveballs.

So, with all of that in mind, it’s time to go over the LAWS OF GAME 7.
(Note: This is humor, and not all of them are meant to be serious.)

Rule One: All Hands on Deck

This is a rule for the managers. During Game 7, all hands are on deck. And I do mean all. Everyone needs to be ready to pitch: starters, relievers, outfielders who were stud pitchers back in High School… remember, there is no tomorrow if you lose. If you have to teach your backup catcher a knuckleball on short notice in the 24th inning, you do it.

Rule Two: Nothing else is on television during a Game 7.

There’s a debate on tonight. The Bears and Lions are playing tonight. Neither will be seen on my television, unless there is a rain delay. Apologies to the President of the United States and the esteemed ex-governor of Massachusetts.

By the way, can you imagine if tonight was an ALCS game between the White Sox and whatever Mitt Romney’s favorite team is (I’m presuming either the Tigers or Red Sox)?

Presumably it would mean stuff like this:

“Mister President, I have a question on China, and, by the way, it’s tied at two in the fifth…”

Rule Three: Everything that has ever happened in a Game 7 is relevant.

Oh, sure, it may seem like past Game 7s are unimportant to this current situation, but they are not. Carlos Beltran, for example, struck out to end Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, when he was with the Mets. Matt Holliday may end up missing tonight’s game with an injury- he also missed Game 7 of last year’s World Series with an injury. Allen Craig hit a home run in last year’s World Series Game 7. The Giants have never won a best-of-7-series Game 7, falling in seven games to the Angels in 2002’s World Series, the Cardinals in the 1987 NLCS, the Yankees in 1962 and the Senators in 1924! The ghosts of Octobers past will be remembered!

Rule Four: Rain doesn’t matter.

It could rain tonight. But, guess what, the World Series is starting Wednesday, and the Tigers need to know where to fly to. Therefore, as Jayson Stark says:

Rule Five: There are no rules.

And anything can happen. That’s the beauty of Game 7.

Which team could “take” the Tigers? It could depend on how the LCS ends.

Well, thanks to Barry Zito’s vintage performance last night, the Giants have forced the Cardinals back to San Francisco, where St. Louis and Chris Carpenter will have to beat Ryan Vogelsong in Game 6, or, failing that, will have to hope that they and Adam Wainwright can outdo Matt Cain in a climactic Game 7. In other words, it’s a whole new series that could go either way.

Meanwhile, in Michigan, the Tigers, having already swept away the complacent Yankees, are going to stay sharp by scrimmaging their Instructional League team. The Instructional Leagues are semi-formal affairs to get low-level minor leaguers- generally those who played in the short-season leagues- some more experience. It’s a win-win: the Tigers will be able to remain sharp, and the minor leaguers will be able to test themselves against, well, some of the best players on the planet.

So, assuming nobody gets hurt, the Tigers will still be relatively fresh against whoever the National League sends out against them. So, who would have a better shot against Detroit?

I’m not sure, but I feel like it would be the Cardinals. Well, unless if they have to win in seven games, in which case I’d probably go with the Giants. Well, maybe.

Here’s what I mean:
Game 1 of the World Series will be Wednesday, weather permitting. The Tigers will be starting Justin Verlander, probably followed by Scherzer, Fister and then Anibal Sanchez. A formidable group for any team.

If the Cardinals win Game 6 on Sunday, their rotation would likely have Adam Wainwright leading off, followed by Kyle Lohse (or maybe Lance Lynn)  on Thursday and then Chris Carpenter for Game 3 on Saturday. Given the fact the Cardinals have a better bullpen than the Tigers seem to have (so, is Coke officially the closer now?), this would give them a decided series advantage if the Tigers’ starters were to stumble.  But if they have to go 7, they will be stuck with sending Lohse/Lynn in the first two games with their two aces having to be held back for games 3 and 4. Sure, they will still have the bullpen and their playoff-veteran defending-championship lineup, but going against Verlander and Scherzer with your third and fourth starters seems like a recipe for going down 0-2.

By contrast, the Giants, although they will, by necessity, be unable to use Cain and Vogelsong in games 1 and 2 if they advance, will still have some good pitchers who can fill the shoes. Barry Zito, for example, still can “have it” like he did last night, and he is a veteran. Few would argue about him starting a Game 1. Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum both are covered with question marks, but I’d probably rather pick between those two guys than possibly having to send out Lance Lynn against Miguel Cabrera and friends, especially after the number that the Giants offense did against him last night (with significant aid of an errant throw off second base by Lynn).

Finally, although it was admittedly an extremely small sample size, various Giants were able to get to Justin Verlander during this year’s All-Star Game. Again, extremely small sample size (and Verlander admitted later he wasn’t pitching it like he would a regular season or playoff game), but you do have to wonder if that might give the Giants something of a psychological edge.

Or maybe Verlander and the other Tigers pitchers will just embarrass whatever team comes against them, just as they did their 1966 Orioles vs. 1966 Dodgers impression on the Yankees. Actually, that might be the most likely outcome, isn’t it?

Profiles in Folly: The Aggressive At-Bat Stat, teaching kids to swing at everything

I’ve got a book called The Dickson Baseball Dictionary, by Paul Dickson. It’s an expensive and expansive book, and I believe I was only able to afford it during the great Borders going-out-of-business sale of 2011. As the title suggest, it is a baseball dictionary, giving the definitions and origins of baseball terms, both common and uncommon.

Some of those terms, though, are weird, and, in other cases, kind of foolish.

Take, for example, the Aggressive At-Bat Stat. The page that has the “AAB” is available in preview format on Google, so you can check it out yourself, but in short, it is a stat, meant for Little League players, that tracks the number of times a plate-appearance ends with the batter swinging, a measure of the “determination” of the batter to try and hit the ball… even if that means him striking out or grounding weakly back to the pitcher. Dickson noted that the stat was introduced by a Stephen Barr and Brian Opitz in the New York Times in 1999, and that they believed that it was an important lesson to encourage trying to make contact no matter what, as even a strikeout would mean the kid was trying. Obviously, the stat hasn’t gained much (or any) leverage since then (a Google search on it brings up only references to Dickson or the New York Times article), and it isn’t hard to figure out why: It’s wrong way of going about it.

Okay, I’ll give that it is able to give a kid a lesson in never giving up and showing determination, but it is a bad way to teach baseball skills, particularly in our Moneyball days and especially in little league where all but the very best pitchers are going have to a hard time finding the strike zone. To encourage this stat would likely mean a great increase in strikeouts and a great decrease in base-on-balls, turning every little leaguer into a pint-sized Vladimir Guerrero, only without, y’know, being Vladimir Guerrero. The kids would easily be able to swing themselves out of a game flailing at pitches nowhere near the strike zone. Compare this to my greatest Little League moment: when I was walked, forcing in the winning run.

If I’d been going for an “Aggressive At-Bat”, I probably would have struck out and then, since I was six, been all angry about it until I got a post-game candy bar from the concession stand. Mmmm, candy bar….

How FOX will be marketing the possible World Series matchups

A fun game to play during the playoffs is: What series does FOX want? After all, it’s no secret that FOX cares not for parity or entertainment, they care only for the ratings and money. However, the sad truth for them is that they cannot control it. So, here’s some advice to FOX for how they can market each of the possible World Series matchups (in rough order of what FOX would like).

Yankees vs. Giants: Ancient Rivals Face Off!

What Joe Buck could say as the series opens: “Seven times the Giants and Yankees have faced off for the World Series Title. Once, they fought for supremacy of New York but in ’62 the Yankees broke San Francisco’s hearts. Now, for the eighth time, two of baseball’s most historic clubs face off… NEXT on FOX!”

Yankees vs. Cardinals: The Greatest Franchises

What Joe Buck could say as the series opens: “107 times the World Series has been held, and over a third of a time, one of these two teams have come out victorious. The New York Yankees, winners of a record 27 titles. The St. Louis Cardinals, defending champions and pride of the National League, winners of 11 titles. Five times these teams have met, three times the Cardinals have come out on top. And now, the two titans of baseball face each other once again. 28 or 12 is coming in the 108th World Series, NEXT on FOX!”

Giants vs. Tigers: Aces Incorporated

What Joe Buck could say as the series opens: “It is said that pitching wins titles. The San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers likely agree. The Giants won the NL West on the strength of their pitching, led by the perfection of Matt Cain. The Tigers,  although bolstered by the offseason acquisition of Prince Fielder, also were led by their staff: Verlander, Fister, Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez. Now, they face off, with the World Series at stake, NEXT on FOX!”

Tigers vs. Cardinals: FOX’s nightmare

What Joe Buck could say as the series opens:  “The Cardinals have  returned to the World Series, looking to defend their crown and win their 12th title. In their way stand the Detroit Tigers, led by Triple-Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and Cy-Young Candidate Justin Verlander. The World Series on FOX, next!”

HUMOR: Who, exactly, are the baseball gods? (Part 1 of an undetermined series)

We often hear about the “baseball gods”, unseen deities who influence the fortunes of ballclubs and their players. It is this pantheon that brings about late-game rallies, fielding misfortunes and playoff runs. Last night, for example, it could be said that the baseball gods abandoned the Oakland Athletics.

However, little has ever been said about who the baseball gods are, beyond the fact that there there are many of them, making baseball a polytheistic religion. This puts the worship/prayer to the baseball gods, interestingly enough, in direct conflict with the vast majority of baseball fans, especially in North America, as well as the the vast majority of baseball players. This, perhaps, explains why none before have dared to give names to the baseball gods, as it would be like making them real, as opposed to an intangible force like luck or clutch-hitting.

They also lack any type of holy scripture about them, presumably because their names are written not in script but rather in THE UNWRITTEN RULES, the invisible text that all baseball players, fans, announcers and managers must follow, by punishment of being accused of breaking THE UNWRITTEN RULES. This has also helped obscure the names of the baseball gods.

Until now, because it is time to give the baseball gods names, and to write them. After the jump, of course:

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Images of Game One of the ALDS

Baltimore was miserable on Sunday: it was cold, the sky was dark, and then it rained. And rained. And rained. And then, finally, Game One of the American League Division Series, which was eight innings of exhilaration and one of the loudest crowds I’ve ever been in followed by another inning where Camden Yards became a morgue. And my camera’s batteries were rather finicky, totally ruining many other opportunities for photos.

So, here we go (after the jump):

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On Infield Flies and Jeffrey Maier (OR: Why the Cardinals could win the World Series but would not be known for the infield fly play)

In baseball, little things can mean a lot. And those little things sometimes are forgotten by all but those who felt themselves wronged.

Some have had problems with how the St. Louis Cardinals benefited from the infield fly call in the NL Wild Card game. While it seems, after reflection and hearing from various experts on TV and online, that the call was technically correct, it struck me as not exactly fitting the spirit of the rules for the infield fly: the infield fly is meant to protect the runners from a possible double play, something I do not believe the Cardinals had any chance of pulling.

The game was protested, of course, and, just like (almost) every other protested game in history, the protest was denied. No matter what your opinion on that infield fly play, you cannot deny, however, that the Cardinals probably dodged a bullet: had there been no call, it is entirely possible they would have lost that game, and would not be headed into a series with Washington. Why, you almost have this sinking feeling that maybe, just maybe, the Cardinals are now going to go on a run to a championship. And you probably think that, for better or worse, they are going to be known as the team that won because of a possibly-incorrect infield fly call. Fans of the Braves and baseball in general may be in horror at the idea that such a thing could happen, and even some Cardinals fans probably are a bit worried that their team, if they go on a run, will probably go on to be remembered the “infield fly team.”

They probably are wrong. In general, only the losing teams are remembered in places where massive mistakes are made, and even then usually only if they themselves are the ones screwing up: the 1986 Red Sox may have lost the World Series because Billy Buckner couldn’t field a routine grounder (there had already been several things that had gone wrong, but it’s that image everyone remembers), the 2003 Cubs may have lost the NLCS because devoted Cubs’ fan Steve Bartman sort-of got in Moises Alou’s way (there is no guarantee he would have caught it, but you never know) and the 1919 Chicago White Sox lost the series because seven or eight players (depending on whether you count Buck Weaver) threw games. Nobody ever seems to associate the 1986 Mets, 2003 Marlins or 1919 Reds with those events, other than as background.

Given that the Orioles (!) and Yankees are about to meet up in the ALDS, a look at their shared history perhaps best illustrates this fact. I speak of the tale of Jeffrey Maier, a then-12-year-old who, in the bottom of the eighth inning in Game 1 of the 1996 ALCS, reached into the field of play and snagged a Derek Jeter fly ball that seemed destined for the glove of Orioles outfielder Tony Tarasco (or, at the very least, the warning track- but not over the fence). Right-field umpire Rich Garcia said that it was a home run, tying the game at four and paving the way for an extra-innings Yankees win. The Orioles’ protest was denied. The Yankees went on to win the series, and the World Series. I was only six at the time, but even I remember thinking that it was some kind of cheating, as if the Yankees had hired that kid to be out there to rob Tony Tarasco, or something. I seem to recall grabbing a newspaper that had a photo of the play on it, grabbing a large red crayon, and drawing a big giant X through it, to show my disgust.

Hey, I was six. I’m not even sure if I had a clue what was going on, but I remember having that big crossed-out picture for awhile, so I must have known something.

Maier, meanwhile, became a pint-sized celebrity, appearing on late night talk shows, being given the Key to the City by Rudy Giuliani, and being generally hailed as a hero by the city, county and state of New York. This despite the fact that, by any measure whatsoever, Maier had done something illegal and helped, intended or not, the Yankees win (or, as six-year-old me would say, cheat) their way to victory. There must have been lots of interesting conversations in New York after that:
“Dad, can I reach out and grab the ball?”
“No, son, it’s against the rules. They’ll kick us out of the stadium.”
“But Jeff Maier did it, and he got to be on TV, and he got that giant key from the mayor!”
“Yes, son, but…”

However, as the years have gone on, Maier has become a footnote, remembered only by grateful Yankee fans, angry Oriole fans and completist baseball historians. He’s now grown-up, a married man and former college player who is involved with baseball off the field. When the 1996 Yankees are discussed, they aren’t called the team that possibly won the ALCS only because of the actions of a 12-year-old, they are known more for being the first title-winning club of the Derek Jeter era.

And this, likely, is what the future may hold for the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals. If they go on a run, as they did in 2006 and 2011, they will be known as a team that won the World Series despite having lost their future Hall-Of-Fame manager, their esteemed hitting coach, and their most famous and talented player in the previous off-season. They may also be known as the first franchise to win three World Series in the 21st century. But it is highly unlikely that anyone other than relieved Cardinal fans, angry Braves fans and completist baseball historians will think much of the infield fly call and whether the Cardinals had gotten lucky.

Because, the thing is, sometimes the lucky teams and the cheaters prosper. And when that happens, the little details that caused them to be lucky or caused them to be cheaters end up becoming footnotes, for better or worse.

So don’t sweat the infield fly, sports fans. Well, except for Braves fans. You’ve already done way more than sweat over it… but that’s another story.


Blast From The Past: How My Predictions Look Going Into Game 162

In the past, I’ve looked at how my predictions from before the season at the Cardinal Courier turned out. So, going into Game 162 of the 162 game season, it’s time to look at how my predictions have turned out.

Let’s take a look (after the jump, of course):

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The Strangest Stadiums: Weird Parks Themselves

One of the reasons why baseball is different is because of how the playing field’s dimensions are different in essentially every ballpark. However, this can also lead to some weird stadiums. I mean, we’re talking utterly bizarre, stadiums or fields that almost certainly didn’t have baseball in mind when they were created, or parks that are extremely different from the usual image we have in our minds of what a baseball stadium should look like. And, of course, there are also ballparks that have really weird stories behind them (those will come later).

Take a look (after the jump, of course):

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