Baltimore was miserable on Sunday: it was cold, the sky was dark, and then it rained. And rained. And rained. And then, finally, Game One of the American League Division Series, which was eight innings of exhilaration and one of the loudest crowds I’ve ever been in followed by another inning where Camden Yards became a morgue. And my camera’s batteries were rather finicky, totally ruining many other opportunities for photos.
So, here we go (after the jump):
Billy Beane is on the record that his #### doesn’t work in the playoffs. His words, not mine. And he’s right. You can build the best team possible for 162 games, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you will be able to do much in the postseason, where there is far less margin for error over a 1-game, 5-game or 7-game series. One good pitcher can allow David to slay Goliath. One bad call can turn victory into defeat. Players who were afterthoughts for months can become heroes for October, while the best of the best can suddenly become ineffective holes in the lineup.
For reasons suck as this, to predict October is a fool’s errand. That said, here are my predictions:
Wild Card Round:
Rangers over Orioles
Braves over Cardinals
League Division Series:
Giants over Reds in 5
Nationals over Braves in 4
Yankees over Rangers in 5
Tigers over Athletics in 4
League Championship Series:
Yankees over Tigers in 7
Nationals over Giants in 6
World Series:
Yankees over Nationals in 7 (But if Strasburg had been pitching, it’d be Nationals over Yankees)
In the past, I’ve looked at how my predictions from before the season at the Cardinal Courier turned out. So, going into Game 162 of the 162 game season, it’s time to look at how my predictions have turned out.
Let’s take a look (after the jump, of course):
There is a possibility, however remote, that the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Texas Rangers will all end up with the same record. For example, let’s say the Rangers slump at the end of the season and go 1-2 and the the two AL East teams go 2-1. Then all three teams will have 94-68 records.
Now, in the past, this wouldn’t have mattered. They’d just declare the winner based on whoever held the tiebreaker (probably head-to-head between the teams). However, now that winning the division will mean avoiding the dreaded one-game wild card game, there will be a tiebreaker game between the Yankees and Orioles.
Now, here’s the thing. A tiebreaker game would count in the regular season standings, as will the stats. So, the winner of that tiebreaker game would have a 95-68 record. This would mean that the winner of the tiebreaker game would have a better record (by a half-game) than Texas, and would, unless if I’m missing some sort of rule, be the top seed in the American League. The Rangers, behind that half game, would be the second seed, and would face the third seed (the AL Central winner, probably the Tigers).
So, in short, if there’s a three way tie in the AL, then the AL East Champion will be the top seed in the league.
Weird, huh?
On October 15, 1997, the Cleveland Indians defeated the favored Baltimore Orioles in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series 1-0 in an 11 inning game on the strength of a Tony Fernandez home run.
And that was the last time that the Baltimore Orioles could have been said to be “in the playoffs”. Until now. Last night, September 30, 2012, the Baltimore Orioles clinched a playoff spot when the Texas Rangers beat the Los Angeles Angels. Only time and the final 3 days of the season will determine where in the playoffs the Orioles will begin, but now is as good a time as any to put in perspective how long it’s been since the Orioles were “in the playoffs”:
14 years, 11 months, 15 days: The exact amount of time between 10/15/97 and 9/30/12.
7: Number of managers (including interims) who have managed the Orioles since 1997 [counting Buck Showalter]
Troy Glaus, J.D. Drew, Kerry Wood, Mike Lowell, Kevin Millar, Eric Gagne, Pat Burrell, Mark Mulder: Some of the noted players who have debuted in the Majors, had their entire careers, and retired, since the Orioles were last in the playoffs.
2: Number of new franchises that Major League Baseball has had since the Orioles were last in the playoffs (Diamondbacks and Rays, who began play in 1998).
17: New stadiums built or begun play in since the Orioles were last in the playoffs.
5 years old: Age of Orioles wunderkind Manny Machado when the Orioles were in the playoffs last.
2: Number of players on the 1997 Orioles who have been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame since the Orioles were last in the playoffs (Cal Ripken and Roberto Alomar). A third (Rafael Palmeiro) likely would have been if not for a steroid scandal and a fourth (Mike Mussina) has a chance at the Hall of Fame in the future.
LA Dodgers, Dutch National Team, USA National Team, Washington Nationals: Places that Davey Johnson has managed since he and Orioles owner Peter Angelos had a falling out that led to Johnson’s resignation shortly after the 1997 season.
Saturn and it’s moons: Current location of the Cassini-Huygens space probe, launched on October 15, 1997, which was also the last day that the Orioles had been “in the playoffs”.
Zero: Number of members of the 1997 Baltimore Orioles still active in the Majors (Arthur Rhodes didn’t pitch this season, although he is not yet officially retired)
Three: Number of members of the 1997 Cleveland Indians team that eliminated the Orioles that are still active. (Omar Vizquel, Jim Thome and Bartolo Colon)
479: The number of home runs that Jim Thome has hit since then.
Zero: The number of times the Pirates have had a .500 season or better since 1997… because some things never change.
A few days ago, I posted the video of Hiroshima outfielder Masato Akamatsu and his so-called “Spider-Man” catch.
Travis Snider did basically the American version of that catch yesterday:
There are rumors that the unprecedented may happen before the end of the season. No, not that the Orioles could make the postseason… something far more unprecedented: Teddy Roosevelt may win the Washington Nationals’ Presidents Race. You see, in Washington they have the four presidents from Mount Rushmore race every night. But while George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and Abe Lincoln have all won plenty of times, Theodore Roosevelt has never won. Ever. Despite the fact that they’ve been racing since July of 2006. There even was a Ken Burns mini-documentary about it on ESPN, where Senator John McCain declared that he was considering congressional hearings over this. With the Nationals now going to the postseason and with plenty of promotion over Teddy for the final homestand of the season, some are taking this to mean that he may finally win.
Only time will tell whether this is true. However, it does bring the opportunity to go over the various racing mascots in Major League Baseball, because, well, why not?
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Major League Baseball has released when, who and where the main World Baseball Classic will be. So, as one of the internet’s only sources for WBC news and analysis (based on the large number of hits I get from people searching for World Baseball Classic), I will now give you my early analysis of the pools. Where I have done projections for the teams, I’ll post a link to them.
First off, one thing of note is that the first round will be pool play, but the second round will be double-elimation. After that, it’s single-elimination in the Semis and the Finals.
So… GO AFTER THE JUMP FOR MY EARLY ANALYSIS!
The resurrection of the Baltimore Orioles, it could be said, began last September. Buck Showalter had said early on that he would be playing his regulars in games against contenders, while using the September call-ups in the games against also-rans.
By comparison, the Yankees, who had stitched up the division by the final series against the Wild Card contending Tampa Bay Rays, decided to send in the call-ups.
So, it was a study in contrasts. When Boston arrived for the series that would decide their season’s fate, they ran into a team with Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, and a mindset that essentially said “This is our World Series.” The Rays, meanwhile, were basically facing a Yankees team that was playing Spring Training baseball.
And so as we barrel through September with several races still close, the question becomes: will the potential spoilers this year be like the Orioles, or like the Yankees?
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Some interesting statistics and rankings of the 2012 Baltimore Orioles:
22nd: Their rank in team Batting Average (.245)
23rd: Their rank in team OBP (.310)
17th: Their rank in team OPS (.719)
18th: Their rank in runs scored (569)
17th: Their rank in team ERA (4.01)
9th most: Their rank in hits allowed (1196)
Tied for seventh most: Their rank in Home Runs allowed (152)
20th best: Their rank in WHIP [Walks and Hits per innings pitched] (1.31)
Tied for second most: Their rank in team errors (97)
2nd: Their rank in the American League East
1: Games back of the New York Yankees
The Baseball Continuum 