(EDITED IN ON DEC. 31: As of this writing, the most recent projection for the United States can be found here.)
AGAIN, THIS IS AN OLD PROJECTION, GO TO THE ABOVE LINK FOR THE MOST RECENT!
With Derek Jeter’s injury last night, I already have to make a modification to yesterday’s projected roster. This roster is exactly the same as yesterdays, with the only difference being Jimmy Rollins replacing Derek Jeter (and changes to the lineup as a result).
A refresher on my selection rules/assumptions:
- Any player coming off a major injury or who has a history of injuries is unlikely to participate. This is especially true for the pitchers.
- Players that will be on new teams are less likely to participate, but shouldn’t be completely ignored, with the exception of pitchers.
- Teams are made up of 28 players, of which 13 of them must be pitchers and two of them catchers.
- The pitch count rules make relievers extremely important.
So after much research and thought, go after the jump for my latest projections for Team USA.
Manager: Joe Torre
Again, this has already been announced, but more details have emerged on who will be on the Team USA coaching roster, mainly that Willie Randolph will be part of the staff. Presumably this means that the coaching staff for Team USA will have heavy doses of Joe Torre’s old staff members. Presumably we will see Mel Stottlemyre and Larry Bowa be confirmed some time in the next few months.
Catchers: Buster Posey, Joe Mauer, Matt Wieters
Posey has said he’d “really consider” playing for Team USA, and Mauer has been reported to want in. These are very good bits of news, as it means that even if Matt Wieters were to skip the tournament, Team USA would still be in great shape behind the plate (and at it), with arguably the two best catchers in baseball there. Note that both Posey and Mauer can play first when needed.
First Basemen: Adam LaRoche
Adam LaRoche had a great season this year with the Nationals, and is one of the best active players who never made it to an All-Star Game. Mauer and Posey both can play first-base if needed.
Second Basemen: Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips
Pedroia played for the USA in 2009 but had to leave after he got injured. Brandon Phillips of the Reds would be his back-up/alternate.
Third Basemen: David Wright, Chase Headley
David Wright is David Wright. He was one of the team leaders in 2009, and had a key hit against Puerto Rico that ensured that Team USA went to the semi-finals. Chase Headley of the Padres, one of the best players nobody knows about, would also be on the roster.
Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Desmond
Given Jeter’s ability at the plate and continued popularity and marketability, he’s a shoo-in, especially given that Torre will be in charge. Jimmy Rollins did so well in the 2009 WBC that he was named to the All-WBC team, so to call him back would be a wise move. Ian Desmond of the Nationals would be the other SS on the roster.
Outfielders: Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Curtis Granderson
The three young guns are there for two reasons: the first, of course, is that they are good. The second is this: if the WBC is to ever become a big event, the players are going to have to get exposed to it and start taking part in it early. The USA Basketball team has the same philosophy, having newer players and sometimes collegiates play in some tournaments while having NBA players play in the Olympics. If MLB and Team USA could try to do the same thing with baseball, it could lead to more interest in the WBC amongst both spectators and players.
Curtis Granderson, meanwhile, would come along because he could provide some veteran leadership and occasional pop. He also is one of the most supportive of baseball’s international efforts, going overseas during the offseason to run clinics and other events.
Utility: Ben Zobrist
Zobrist could play up the middle or in the outfield, while also providing a good bat off the bench if needed.
Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander, David Price, Chris Sale, Ryan Vogelsong
This is the best-case scenario for Team USA, although only Vogelsong has officially committed yet (he even showed up at the press conference for the WBC in San Francisco). These four pitchers went a combined 68-30 this season. Vogelsong had the worst ERA of the bunch at 3.37. The other reason that Vogelsong is on the team (besides the fact that, uh, basically already said he’s in) is that he previously spent three years in Japan, so knows a bit more than the average American on how the Asian countries go about their baseball. He might even be familiar with some of their hitters.
Relievers: Jim Johnson, Chris Perez, Craig Kimbrel, Joel Hanrahan, Ryan Cook, Darren O’Day, James Russell, Matt Thornton, Craig Stammen
Johnson, Perez, Kimbrel and Hanrahan are traditional closers, each of which could be potential closers for a Team USA. Perez and Hanrahan have pitched in previous WBCs for Team USA. Ryan Cook did some closing as well for the Athletics, but also did plenty of mid-relief and set-up work. The rest of the guys are entirely middle relief and set-up guys, the (usually) no-name pitchers who toil in anonymity but often make the difference between victory or defeat. Darren O’Day proved his worth this season with the Orioles, and shut down the Yankees during his appearances in the ALDS. James Russell of the Cubs is a left-hander who had a 3.25 ERA this season as he pitched in parts of 77 games. Thornton, left-handed reliever for the White Sox, also pitched for Team USA in 2009. Craig Stammen finishes up the roster as a long reliever.
So what might the lineup for this team look like? Maybe something like this:
1. Rollins, SS
2. Harper, LF
3. Stanton, RF
4. LaRoche, 1B
5. Trout, CF
6. Posey, C
7. Mauer, DH
8. Wright, 3B
9. Pedroia, 2B
Yes, that’s a lineup where Joe Mauer is hitting 7th, Dustin Pedroia is hitting “second lead-off” and guys like Curtis Granderson, Chase Headley and Matt Wieters are sitting on the bench. Impressive.
CHANGES FROM VERSIONS 1.1: Brian McCann’s sub-par season (and the fact Mauer, who I thought would skip it, seems to be interested) has kicked him off the list. Konerko and Fielder have been removed- Konerko due to a falloff in performance late in the season and Fielder because, well, he isn’t much of a fielder. The fact Mauer and Posey can both play first meant I could go with just one dedicated 1B. I replaced Jason Kipnis with Phillips at second for some more veteran influence. I replaced Mike Trumbo with Giancarlo Stanton after Stanton said he was interested in playing for Team USA. Zobrist replaces Michael Cuddyer because Cuddyer had injury problems this season. Chase Headley was added in to provide a backup for Wright. The pitching staffs have been shuffled around to both reflect how some of the players that have indicated interest as well as to better take into account the events of the whole season.
CHANGES FROM VERSION 2.0: Jimmy Rollins in for the injured Jeter. Rollins also takes his spot as lead-off man in the lineup.
Pingback: WBC 2013 Projections: Dominican Republic Version 2.0 | The Baseball Continuum
Pingback: My WBC Projections as of Nov. 4, 2012 | The Baseball Continuum
I like how the line up is handled but I think Stanton should bat 4th and posey 5th and the pitching staff is perfect like cains perfect game
Here’s my line up Rollins,pedroia,laroche,Stanton,posey,trout,wright,mauer,and start Cain verlander or voglesong
I want to start by saying I am a Giants fan. Posey is your number 3 hitter. Let me tell you why. Posey the current Silver Slugger and NL MVP. Posey hit .430 against lefties for the season, and he hit .336 over all. He had 24 HR’s and 39 doubles. Stanton is a stud no doubt and has more pop. However Posey is the better hitter and with table setters like Trout and Harper the number three spot is supposed to move them along, not swing for the fence. Honestly would you want a guy who hit .290 or .336 at the number 3 spot? Stanton struck out 143 times last season. Stanton would be a good number 4 or 5 hitter but not a third. Not with a guy like Posey in the line up. Personally my line up looks like this.
1. Trout, 2. Harper 3. Posey 4. Stanton 5. LaRoche 6. Headley (I like him more than Wright) 7. Mauer 8. Pedroia 9. Rollins
If Poseys 3 then Stanton is 4. The best power hitter in baseball for the next 10 years. He’s the man!
I think Eric has it right! Headley or Wright… six of one half-dozen of another. Trout MVP!
Trout and Harper won’t play.
Harper has been confirmed not to play (as has been noted in a more recent projection), but I have yet to see a report on Trout. Where did you see that?
Y’all forgetting Braun
These projections are out-of-date.
He was in my most recent projections. I have a link to it at the top of this.