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Mr. Octobers of Yesterday (October 12, 2013)

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Who are the Mr. Octobers of yesterday?

Well, the Cardinals-Dodgers game has Mr. Octobers in Michael Wacha (who again impressed with 8 Ks in 6.2 scoreless innings) and, in another case where two pitchers are getting the award, Clayton Kershaw, who got a tough-luck loss, having given up just two hits in the game and no earned runs.

As for the Tigers-Red Sox game? Anibal Sanchez, who has 6 hitless innings with 12 Ks before the pitchcount took him out, and Jhonny Peralta, who had three hits, including the game’s lone RBI.

Standings (PP= Position Play, P= Pitcher):

PP Carlos Beltran– 11

P Clayton Kershaw– 11

P Justin Verlander– 9

P Adam Wainwright– 9

P Michael Wacha– 8

PP Jhonny Peralta – 8

P Max Scherzer– 6

P Koji Uehara– 6

PP Shane Victorino– 6

PP David Freese – 6

PP Miguel Cabrera– 6

P Zack Greinke– 5

P Anibal Sanchez – 5

PP David Ortiz– 3

P Sonny Gray-3

PP Adrian Gonzalez– 3

P Gerrit Cole– 3

PP Pedro Alvarez– 3

P Jon Lester– 3

P Mike Minor– 3

PP Hanley Ramirez– 3

PP Yoenis Cespedes– 3

P Jason Grilli– 3

PP Carl Crawford– 3

P Chris Capuano– 3

PP Seth Smith– 3

P Dan Otero– 3

PP Matt Holliday-3

PP Jose Lobaton-3

P Jake McGee-3

PP Juan Uribe-3

PP (Position Player) Russell Martin– 1

P (Pitcher) Francisco Liriano– 1

PP Desmond Jennings– 1

P Alex Cobb– 1

Preview/Predictions for the 2013 ALCS

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I have no clue. I have basically zero clue as to what will happen in this upcoming series between the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers. It’s like trying to determine who would win between an unstoppable force (the Red Sox) and an immovable object (the Tigers, especially their pitching staff). That said, there are some hints as to what the outcome may be, and it suggests that the Red Sox will be the ones coming out on top.

Most importantly, the Red Sox have their rotation set-up how they want it, a result of finishing off the Rays in four while the Tigers had to go five against Oakland. That means Max Scherzer will have to wait until game 2 and Verlander won’t be in until game 3. In contrast, the Red Sox have it all set up for Jon Lester to pitch game 1 against Anibal Sanchez, with Clay Buchholz set up to go ace-on-ace against Max Scherzer. In other words, they are set up to have a great chance at winning game one and have perhaps an even chance at game 2. And, in fact, that could be pretty important for the Red Sox, as it would mean they could stumble against Verlander and still be in command of the series.

Besides that, though, I feel like the Red Sox have an advantage in bullpen and in general health. The Tigers’ bullpen was rather shaky during the ALDS (remember how they allowed the tying run to come to the plate in game 5?), which was the complete opposite of what the Red Sox was, as Koji Uehara (aside from one bad pitch to Jose Lobaton) was lights-out and Craig Breslow was similarly effective. As for health, despite that home run, it’s obvious that Miguel Cabrera is still far from what he’s supposed to be, and that could change everything.

With the better pitching set-up, better bullpen, and better health, I’m going with the Red Sox in 6.

Preview/Predictions for the 2013 NLCS

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It could be a classic series in the making in the National League Championship Series. After all, we are seeing two pitching-rich members of the “Original 16” facing off, with exciting hitters old and new dotting their lineups as well. Who holds the edge? Well… I don’t know. As I’ve said before and will say again, it’s really difficult to predict a series, where one funny hop or blown call can change everything. So, let’s go aspect by aspect.

First, starting pitching. In this aspect, the Dodgers have an edge. Not too big of an edge, but an edge nontheless. First off, the fact that they were able to finish off the Braves in four games means that they can set up their rotation roughly how they want, with the exception that they will have to swap Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the rotation, which, while not what they would have preferred, is hardly a death-blow. By comparison, the Cardinals will be unable to call upon their ace, Adam Wainwright, until Game 3, although they will be able to have young phenom Michael Wacha go against Kershaw. This leads to another advantage that the Dodgers’ rotation has over the Cardinals: depth. Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly are certainly capable pitchers who could defeat the Dodgers, but they aren’t quite at the one-two punch level of Hyun-Jin Ryu (who would be a Rookie of the Year candidate most seasons) or Ricky Nolasco.

Now, lineup. This goes in St. Louis’ favor. They have a deeper bench, more depth, and have Carlos Beltran, who, as has been noted before and will be noted again, is the greatest postseason hitter of our era, if not any era. The redbirds scored 77 more runs this season than any other NL team, and there’s really only one hitter of their eight position players (Pete Kozma) that I wouldn’t fear due to either numbers or reputation.

So, what about bullpen? I give this one to the Dodgers, slightly. Kenley Jansen is an awesome reliever, especially when you consider he once was a catcher. And they also have Brian Wilson, who seems to be back to normal (or whatever he calls normal), as well as other good relievers like J.P. Howell. While the Cardinals certainly aren’t hurting in the bullpen, with Trevor Rosenthal at the helm most notably, but I feel like the Dodgers have a slight advantage here- I’m not entirely sure why, I just feel that way.

However, there are other factors to keep in mind: the Cardinals have home field and more experience, for example, and, well, Don Mattingley still hasn’t won a World Series, despite playing for and then coaching with the Yankees, so you have to wonder if there is some sort of hex upon him.

I don’t believe in hexes, though. Well, not for the purposes of this article at least, as I predict the Dodgers will win in 7.

Mr. Octobers of Yesterday (October 8, 2013)

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Okay, first off, the game between the Tigers and Athletics. Among position players, the Mr. October was Jhonny Peralta. His home run tied the score at 3-3 and he had another hit as well.

Meanwhile, on the mound, I’m going with Max Scherzer. Not because he was good- as he initially not and allowed the Athletics to tie it up during his relief appearance- so much as how he was able to escape the mess, getting out of a bases-loaded situation with no outs without letting another run to score.

As for the Red Sox-Rays game, the position player who wins is Shane Victorino, who’s single in the seventh was ultimately the winning run. The pitcher was Koji Uehara, who made up for his loss in Game 3 by shutting down the four Rays he faced as he finished the game and got the save.

So, tonight is a Game 5. And a Game 5 means points will count double!

Anyway, here are the standings:

PP Carlos Beltran– 6

P Clayton Kershaw– 6

P Max Scherzer– 6

P Koji Uehara– 6

PP Shane Victorino– 6

PP David Ortiz– 3

P Justin Verlander– 3

P Sonny Gray-3

P Adam Wainwright– 3

PP Adrian Gonzalez– 3

P Gerrit Cole– 3

PP Pedro Alvarez– 3

P Jon Lester– 3

P Mike Minor– 3

PP Hanley Ramirez– 3

PP Yoenis Cespedes– 3

P Jason Grilli– 3

PP Carl Crawford– 3

P Chris Capuano– 3

PP Seth Smith– 3

P Dan Otero– 3

P Michael Wacha– 3

PP Matt Holliday-3

PP Jose Lobaton-3

P Jake McGee-3

PP Juan Uribe-3

PP Jhonny Peralta – 3

PP (Position Player) Russell Martin– 1

P (Pitcher) Francisco Liriano– 1

PP Desmond Jennings– 1

P Alex Cobb– 1

Mr. Octobers for October 7, 2013

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Wow, what a day. Four games, and all of them had something good in them.

In the A’s-Tigers game, the position player Mr. October was Seth Smith, who had 2 hits and 2 RBIs, including a homer. Meanwhile, on the mound, Dan Otero wins the award for his two innings of good relief. Also, just an honorable mention to Grant Balfour and Victor Martinez for getting so many swear-words past MLB Network’s audio guys.

The next game, Pirates-Cardinals, almost saw history get made, as Michael Wacha got into the 8th inning before losing his no-hitter on a Pedro Alvarez HR. Wacha, of course, gets the Pitching award, while the position player getting the award was Matt Holliday, who’s two-run HR was ultimately the difference in the close 2-1 contest, and who had another hit too.

Boston-Tampa Bay was another classic, ending with Jose Lobaton‘s 9th-inning walk-off into the Ray tank in the outfield. Lobaton, of course, gets the award for position players- he only had one at-bat, but he really made it count. On the mound, Jake McGee wins, as his nice escape from having a man on second with no outs allowed the Rays to keep the game tied.

Finally, deep into the night, there was Braves-Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw, on short rest, threw 6 innings without an earned run, allowing him to outduel an overachieving Freddy Garcia (if not for the defensive problems of the Dodgers, the game would have been a shutout) and later Juan Uribe hit a two-run home run to put the Dodgers ahead for good. They are the Mr. Octobers for that game.

Standings (PP= position player, P= pitcher):

PP Carlos Beltran– 6

P Clayton Kershaw– 6

PP David Ortiz– 3

P Koji Uehara– 3

P Justin Verlander– 3

P Sonny Gray-3

P Adam Wainwright– 3

PP Adrian Gonzalez– 3

P Gerrit Cole– 3

PP Pedro Alvarez– 3

P Jon Lester– 3

PP Shane Victorino -3

P Mike Minor– 3

PP Hanley Ramirez– 3

P Max Scherzer– 3

PP Yoenis Cespedes– 3

P Jason Grilli– 3

PP Carl Crawford– 3

P Chris Capuano– 3

PP Seth Smith- 3

P Dan Otero- 3

P Michael Wacha- 3

PP Matt Holliday-3

PP Jose Lobaton-3

P Jake McGee-3

PP Juan Uribe-3

PP (Position Player) Russell Martin– 1

P (Pitcher) Francisco Liriano– 1

PP Desmond Jennings– 1

P Alex Cobb– 1

Songs of October: A Retrospective (Because Why Not?)

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It’s a sensation that’s spreading across the nation: Mups. Their spread is unstoppable, to the point where some like the “Cespedes Family BBQ” and Jesse Spector have begun to engage in a “#Mupwatch”. But some wonder: What is a Mup? Are they some sort of Muppet? Is it dangerous? And why are they being lit on fire?

Well, the answer lies in the commercials that have been playing in the lead-up to and during the post-season, featuring Fall Out Boy’s “My Songs Know What You Did In The Dark”. Here is an example of such a commercial. While officially they are saying “Light ’em up”, it sounds, especially during the echoing segments, like they are actually talking about things called “mups”.

And thus continues a long tradition of October songs that have graced our televisions and infected our ears, whether we liked them or not. And, usually, if we DID like them at the start of the postseason, we end up being sick of them by the end just from hearing them so many times.

And, what’s more, these songs and how they become memes aren’t of a universal source. Most of them, for example, are part of TBS’ coverage, but others, including the latest Fall Out Boy song, are actually of MLB’s doing. Like, TBS is using a different song*,  and MLB Network itself also has a different song for the commercials for it’s two games**. Also, it should be noted that none of them are explicit about baseball, and most of them are more picked for the imagery of their chorus than any type of lyrical sense and fit.

*Using Google searches of the lyrics I was able to decipher, I’ve figured out it’s 30 Seconds to Mars’ “Do or Die”.

**Again using Google, I’ve found that the commercials use the chorus from Papa Roach’s “Still Swingin’“.

Still, with that out of the way, here’s a history (after the jump) of the Songs of October:

Continue reading →

Preview/Prediction for AL Wild Card Tonight

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It’s the Tampa Bay Rays at the Cleveland Indians tonight, with the winner advancing to the ALDS. While I’ve predicted the past two games correctly, I feel like this one will be tougher. But, ultimately, I still like the Rays here.

My reasons:

  • Pitching, pitching, pitching. Alex Cobb is a better and (slightly) more experienced starter than Danny Salazar, and the Rays bullpen, while tired and sometimes erratic, at least has a defined closer and role players, unlike the by-committee approach that now rules the Indians’ pen.
  • Hitting. Team WAR on Fangraphs for the Rays this season was 30.3, behind only the Red Sox. Team WAR for Indians was 21.8, 15th in MLB. Also, Evan Longoria is on fire. That alone can turn the tide of the game.
  • Fielding: The Rays have an advantage in most advanced fielding statistics and metrics.
  • Momentum: The Rays were playing only two days ago, on Monday. The Indians have been sitting around since Sunday.
  • Playoff experience: The Rays have been here before, most (but certainly not all) of the Indians haven’t.

So, I’m predicting a 5-3 Rays victory tonight.

The MR. OCTOBERs of last night (October 1, 2013)

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Welcome to the MR. OCTOBER tracker of the Baseball Continuum. Here’s how it goes: instead of going by day, we’re going by game. Each game will have an MVP position player and an MVP pitcher. The amount of points given are as so: the MVPs of a Wild Card game get one point, MVPs of an LDS game get three points, MVPs of a LCS game get five points, and MVPs of World Series games get ten points. Points are doubled if it’s in a Game 5 in the LDS or Game 7 of the LCS or WS.

So, with that out of the way, here are the hitting and pitching MVPs of last night: Russell Martin (2 HRs) and Francisco Liriano (7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 5 SO).

Standings:

PP (Position Player) Russell Martin- 1

P (Pitcher) Francisco Liriano- 1

NL Wild Card Game Preview/Prediction

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Like I said yesterday, it’s really hard to predict any single game, and that holds true for tonight. Sure, you’d think the the Pirates- who handled the Reds in their season-ending series- would win, especially with home field and tens of thousands of screaming fans who have waited since 1992 to see playoff baseball. However, again, one game is hard to predict.

That said, I like the Pirates’ chances tonight.

For one, they have the advantages I mentioned above- having shown they can beat the Reds and also having home field. For another, they are better set up to win tonight in other aspects.

Take pitching, for example. The Pirates will be sending Francisco Liriano to the mound. He has a 1.49 ERA in PNC Park, and has lost a grand total of once there this season. In contrast, the Reds have Johnny Cueto on the mound. While probably the better pitcher than Liriano under most circumstances, this will be only Cueto’s third start after returning from a DL stint and that carries huge risk, especially since the Pirates have a better bullpen than the Reds.

While, admittedly, the Pirates’ bullpen has had it’s ups and downs just like every other bullpen, the fact is that Fangraphs lists Pittsburgh’s relievers has having near two more Wins Above Replacement than the Reds’ bullpen. Although it’s something of a simplification, this essentially means that a team with the Pittsburgh bullpen would win two more games than, say, a team with the Reds bullpen. That might not seem a lot, but when you remember how razor-thin some races are in baseball, it can make a big difference. Also, I’m not exactly confident in how well Dusty Baker will do managing the bullpen in tonight’s game, although admittedly managerial comparisons are sometimes heresay.

However, the Reds do have two advantages. The first is the x-factor that is Billy Hamilton. If he gets on base- whether by getting a hit or by pinch-running- then the whole game situation could change, as his speed provides both a real (he can actually steal bases and beat throws) and psychological advantage. The second is that they are better at getting on base.

However, in general, I’m going with the momentum and home field advantage: I predict the Pirates win 6-3. Just don’t quote me on it… unless I’m right.

AL Wild Card Tiebreaker Preview

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Well, Game 163 is tonight, as the Texas Rangers host the Tampa Bay Rays for the right to advance to the Wild Card Game against Cleveland on Wednesday.

It is, of course, folly to try and predict a single baseball game. There are so many actors and factors (a rhyme!) that are in play, and a single strange hop or blown call can change everything. Luck will have just as much to do with the result of this game as skill.

That said, the old axiom that good pitching beats good hitting suggests that the Rays have the advantage tonight. Why? Because they have David Price on the mound. While Price was only 9-8 this year while Texas’ Martin Perez was 10-5, win-loss records are misleading. Instead, look at how Price has a lower ERA than Perez, and how Price has a better WAR than Perez, and how Price has experience pitching in big games while this will be Perez’s first rodeo.

Of course, that experience could cut both ways. You see,  Price’s relative veteran status means that the Rangers have had plenty of times to face him. They know him firsthand, and while that might not save them if he is having a good day, it certainly evens the odds a bit. Alex Rios, for example, is a career .435 hitter against Price in 23 at-bats, including two home runs. Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre also have good numbers against Price, and Nelson Cruz– back from his Biogenesis suspension- has had three home runs in his career against the Rays’ ace, including one in the 2010 postseason.

By comparison, only four members of the Rays have ever faced Perez, so they will be going mainly on scouting and video. Maybe this will mean nothing, as the Rays’ contain plenty of hitters who are just naturally gifted.

Which, of course, leads to how these two lineups stack up. In general, I’d say this is a slight advantage to Texas, especially with Cruz back. Texas, statistically, has hit better for average and power this year than Tampa, although not overwhelmingly so, while Tampa has a edge in getting on base. The two are ridiculously close when it comes to OPS, with Tampa at .737 and Texas at .736. However, Texas didn’t have Cruz these past few months due to his suspension, so I hypothesize that his addition will provide the ever-so-slight edge for the Rangers.

So, the starting matchup favors Tampa, but the lineups will likely favor Texas. What does that leave us with? Bullpens, fielding and managing.

Starting with the last of the three: Joe Maddon is unquestionably the better strategic mind than Ron Washington, using advanced metrics and unconventional tactics while Ron Washington… doesn’t.

Next, fielding. This is tough, as the advanced fielding statistics are really complicated, Gold Gloves are subjective and the traditional statistics are often misleading. And, I got to say, it all depends on what stat you look at… so I’m calling this one a push.

And so, finally, the bullpens. I give a slight advantage to the Rangers, at least assuming there aren’t any screwups. Their bullpen was better statistically than the Rays’ bullpen this season, although admittedly Fernando Rodney was erratic all year for Tampa, going from Cy Young to Cy Yuk and back again several times, so who knows?

So, there you go, it looks like a very evenly-matched contest, but I’m going to go with the Rays, 4-2. I just don’t feel like going against David Price.