How the series look right now

It is, as I have noted before, almost impossible to predict October. Who would have thought, for example, that Derek Jeter would get hurt, that Robinson Cano would enter a record-breaking slump, or that the Reds would lose three straight at home to the Giants to end their season.

However, already we are getting some indication of how the rest of the two series might go.

ALCS: The Yankees are in big trouble. Very, very, big trouble. They can’t hit to save their lives, the one guy they had who was hitting (Jeter) is down for the count, they lost the first two games of the series at home. No team has ever come back from an 0-2 deficit in the Best-of-7 LCS when those two losses came at home. And, what’s more, there odds of winning game 3 must be considered perilously low, as they will be facing Justin Verlander. Perhaps they would have a good chance in Game 3 had they been able to run out C.C. Sabathia against him, but instead they will be sending out Phil Hughes. Hughes is hardly a scrub, but no sane man would say they’d want him on the mound instead of Verlander, especially in Comerica Park, which favors the pitcher.

With that in mind, one would probably want to say that the Tigers are in the driver’s seat. However, that would probably be overestimating things. You see, although it looks like the Tigers have this series in the bag, that isn’t necessarily true. If Verlander has a bad day (or Hughes has an unusually great day), they could very well lose tomorrow’s Game 3. They would then be facing C.C. Sabathia. Admittedly, the Tigers would be sending out Max Scherzer, who, while no Sabathia, would definitely have good odds of being able to meet and defeat the Yankees than Phil Hughes is to do the same against Verlander and the Tigers.

Even if the Yankees were to somehow win the next two games though, I would have to say the advantage still would preside with the Tigers. The reason, much like the reason they should be considered heavily favored tomorrow, lies with Verlander. Verlander would be pitching any Game 7… and Sabathia wouldn’t (at least, not on normal rest).

Advantage: Tigers

NLCS: This series has only gone one game, and given how nuts last night’s game was, as well as the many twists and turns the NLDSes (NLDSii?) were, it may seem folly to predict what may still lie in store. One thing is for certain though: the Giants would be greatly helped if they win tonight. As I said earlier, losing the first two games at home in a LCS series is almost a death sentence, although admittedly the Giants were able to survive a similar situation in the NLDS. The result tonight is extremely up in the air: on paper, one would think having Ryan Vogelsong on the mound would put one in a better position than Chris Carpenter, who although the better pitcher only had limited playing time this year due to injury (it is a bit of a miracle that he is playing at all right now).  Carpenter, though, has done very well in the postseason so far, throwing 5.2 in his NLDS start without giving up a earned-run. Still,

Past tonight and Game 3 (when Matt Cain will presumably start), though, the Giants are facing a somewhat chaotic pitching situation. Madison Bumgarner has been dreadful this October so far, Barry Zito struggled greatly in his NLDS start, and Tim Lincecum was so dreadful during the later parts of this season (after seemingly recovering from first-half struggles) that he’s been used from the bullpen in the postseason. Although, admittedly, Lincecum has done very well out of the bullpen, so maybe he deserves another shot at starting this year. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have a relatively stable starting pitching staff, and they have Carlos Beltran and David Freese, players who have always (and are) stepped up in October.

So, come to think of it, maybe it’s more clear that I thought that it’s ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS.

 

2013 WBC Team USA projections Version 2.0

(EDITED IN ON DEC. 31: As of this writing, the most recent projection for the United States can be found here.)

Since my last projection for the Team USA roster, some guys have said definitively they won’t take part, others have said they would like to, some have gotten injured, and still others haven’t said anything. Therefore, this is a total rebuild of my projections for Team USA, done from near-scratch as if I had never done my previous projections. I still will note the changes at the end of this post, however.

A refresher on my selection rules/assumptions:

  • Any player coming off a major injury or who has a history of injuries is unlikely to participate. This is especially true for the pitchers.
  • Players that will be on new teams are less likely to participate, but shouldn’t be completely ignored, with the exception of pitchers.
  • Teams are made up of 28 players, of which 13 of them must be pitchers and two of them catchers.
  • The pitch count rules make relievers extremely important.

So after much research and thought, go after the jump for my latest projections for Team USA.

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How FOX will be marketing the possible World Series matchups

A fun game to play during the playoffs is: What series does FOX want? After all, it’s no secret that FOX cares not for parity or entertainment, they care only for the ratings and money. However, the sad truth for them is that they cannot control it. So, here’s some advice to FOX for how they can market each of the possible World Series matchups (in rough order of what FOX would like).

Yankees vs. Giants: Ancient Rivals Face Off!

What Joe Buck could say as the series opens: “Seven times the Giants and Yankees have faced off for the World Series Title. Once, they fought for supremacy of New York but in ’62 the Yankees broke San Francisco’s hearts. Now, for the eighth time, two of baseball’s most historic clubs face off… NEXT on FOX!”

Yankees vs. Cardinals: The Greatest Franchises

What Joe Buck could say as the series opens: “107 times the World Series has been held, and over a third of a time, one of these two teams have come out victorious. The New York Yankees, winners of a record 27 titles. The St. Louis Cardinals, defending champions and pride of the National League, winners of 11 titles. Five times these teams have met, three times the Cardinals have come out on top. And now, the two titans of baseball face each other once again. 28 or 12 is coming in the 108th World Series, NEXT on FOX!”

Giants vs. Tigers: Aces Incorporated

What Joe Buck could say as the series opens: “It is said that pitching wins titles. The San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers likely agree. The Giants won the NL West on the strength of their pitching, led by the perfection of Matt Cain. The Tigers,  although bolstered by the offseason acquisition of Prince Fielder, also were led by their staff: Verlander, Fister, Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez. Now, they face off, with the World Series at stake, NEXT on FOX!”

Tigers vs. Cardinals: FOX’s nightmare

What Joe Buck could say as the series opens:  “The Cardinals have  returned to the World Series, looking to defend their crown and win their 12th title. In their way stand the Detroit Tigers, led by Triple-Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and Cy-Young Candidate Justin Verlander. The World Series on FOX, next!”

HUMOR: Who, exactly, are the baseball gods? (Part 1 of an undetermined series)

We often hear about the “baseball gods”, unseen deities who influence the fortunes of ballclubs and their players. It is this pantheon that brings about late-game rallies, fielding misfortunes and playoff runs. Last night, for example, it could be said that the baseball gods abandoned the Oakland Athletics.

However, little has ever been said about who the baseball gods are, beyond the fact that there there are many of them, making baseball a polytheistic religion. This puts the worship/prayer to the baseball gods, interestingly enough, in direct conflict with the vast majority of baseball fans, especially in North America, as well as the the vast majority of baseball players. This, perhaps, explains why none before have dared to give names to the baseball gods, as it would be like making them real, as opposed to an intangible force like luck or clutch-hitting.

They also lack any type of holy scripture about them, presumably because their names are written not in script but rather in THE UNWRITTEN RULES, the invisible text that all baseball players, fans, announcers and managers must follow, by punishment of being accused of breaking THE UNWRITTEN RULES. This has also helped obscure the names of the baseball gods.

Until now, because it is time to give the baseball gods names, and to write them. After the jump, of course:

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Images of Game One of the ALDS

Baltimore was miserable on Sunday: it was cold, the sky was dark, and then it rained. And rained. And rained. And then, finally, Game One of the American League Division Series, which was eight innings of exhilaration and one of the loudest crowds I’ve ever been in followed by another inning where Camden Yards became a morgue. And my camera’s batteries were rather finicky, totally ruining many other opportunities for photos.

So, here we go (after the jump):

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Random Video of the Undetermined Time: Before Ichiro, there was Maddux

As I work on my recollections and photos from Game 1 of the American League Division Series between the Orioles and Yankees, perhaps now is a good time to talk about perhaps the signature play of Game 2: Ichiro’s dancing avoidance of Matt Wieters to score the first run of the game.

Ichiro has had many signature moments, but that play may be one of his best, it was something that nobody had ever seen before.

Except, well, this is baseball, so something like that had happened before. But who could have pulled off such a acrobatic feat of contortionist baserunning? Rickey Henderson? Pete Rose? A young Ken Griffey?

Would you believe Greg Maddux? (You have to click on the image below to get to the video)

On Infield Flies and Jeffrey Maier (OR: Why the Cardinals could win the World Series but would not be known for the infield fly play)

In baseball, little things can mean a lot. And those little things sometimes are forgotten by all but those who felt themselves wronged.

Some have had problems with how the St. Louis Cardinals benefited from the infield fly call in the NL Wild Card game. While it seems, after reflection and hearing from various experts on TV and online, that the call was technically correct, it struck me as not exactly fitting the spirit of the rules for the infield fly: the infield fly is meant to protect the runners from a possible double play, something I do not believe the Cardinals had any chance of pulling.

The game was protested, of course, and, just like (almost) every other protested game in history, the protest was denied. No matter what your opinion on that infield fly play, you cannot deny, however, that the Cardinals probably dodged a bullet: had there been no call, it is entirely possible they would have lost that game, and would not be headed into a series with Washington. Why, you almost have this sinking feeling that maybe, just maybe, the Cardinals are now going to go on a run to a championship. And you probably think that, for better or worse, they are going to be known as the team that won because of a possibly-incorrect infield fly call. Fans of the Braves and baseball in general may be in horror at the idea that such a thing could happen, and even some Cardinals fans probably are a bit worried that their team, if they go on a run, will probably go on to be remembered the “infield fly team.”

They probably are wrong. In general, only the losing teams are remembered in places where massive mistakes are made, and even then usually only if they themselves are the ones screwing up: the 1986 Red Sox may have lost the World Series because Billy Buckner couldn’t field a routine grounder (there had already been several things that had gone wrong, but it’s that image everyone remembers), the 2003 Cubs may have lost the NLCS because devoted Cubs’ fan Steve Bartman sort-of got in Moises Alou’s way (there is no guarantee he would have caught it, but you never know) and the 1919 Chicago White Sox lost the series because seven or eight players (depending on whether you count Buck Weaver) threw games. Nobody ever seems to associate the 1986 Mets, 2003 Marlins or 1919 Reds with those events, other than as background.

Given that the Orioles (!) and Yankees are about to meet up in the ALDS, a look at their shared history perhaps best illustrates this fact. I speak of the tale of Jeffrey Maier, a then-12-year-old who, in the bottom of the eighth inning in Game 1 of the 1996 ALCS, reached into the field of play and snagged a Derek Jeter fly ball that seemed destined for the glove of Orioles outfielder Tony Tarasco (or, at the very least, the warning track- but not over the fence). Right-field umpire Rich Garcia said that it was a home run, tying the game at four and paving the way for an extra-innings Yankees win. The Orioles’ protest was denied. The Yankees went on to win the series, and the World Series. I was only six at the time, but even I remember thinking that it was some kind of cheating, as if the Yankees had hired that kid to be out there to rob Tony Tarasco, or something. I seem to recall grabbing a newspaper that had a photo of the play on it, grabbing a large red crayon, and drawing a big giant X through it, to show my disgust.

Hey, I was six. I’m not even sure if I had a clue what was going on, but I remember having that big crossed-out picture for awhile, so I must have known something.

Maier, meanwhile, became a pint-sized celebrity, appearing on late night talk shows, being given the Key to the City by Rudy Giuliani, and being generally hailed as a hero by the city, county and state of New York. This despite the fact that, by any measure whatsoever, Maier had done something illegal and helped, intended or not, the Yankees win (or, as six-year-old me would say, cheat) their way to victory. There must have been lots of interesting conversations in New York after that:
“Dad, can I reach out and grab the ball?”
“No, son, it’s against the rules. They’ll kick us out of the stadium.”
“But Jeff Maier did it, and he got to be on TV, and he got that giant key from the mayor!”
“Yes, son, but…”

However, as the years have gone on, Maier has become a footnote, remembered only by grateful Yankee fans, angry Oriole fans and completist baseball historians. He’s now grown-up, a married man and former college player who is involved with baseball off the field. When the 1996 Yankees are discussed, they aren’t called the team that possibly won the ALCS only because of the actions of a 12-year-old, they are known more for being the first title-winning club of the Derek Jeter era.

And this, likely, is what the future may hold for the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals. If they go on a run, as they did in 2006 and 2011, they will be known as a team that won the World Series despite having lost their future Hall-Of-Fame manager, their esteemed hitting coach, and their most famous and talented player in the previous off-season. They may also be known as the first franchise to win three World Series in the 21st century. But it is highly unlikely that anyone other than relieved Cardinal fans, angry Braves fans and completist baseball historians will think much of the infield fly call and whether the Cardinals had gotten lucky.

Because, the thing is, sometimes the lucky teams and the cheaters prosper. And when that happens, the little details that caused them to be lucky or caused them to be cheaters end up becoming footnotes, for better or worse.

So don’t sweat the infield fly, sports fans. Well, except for Braves fans. You’ve already done way more than sweat over it… but that’s another story.


Putting things in perspective

During the Athletics-Rangers game yesterday, I saw somebody (one of the Oakland reporters) retweet this:

Stephanee Neshek is the wife of Pat Neshek. Pat Neshek is a right-handed reliever for the Oakland Athletics, notable for his rather quirky delivery. He came up through the Twins system, and he’s one of the most fan-friendly guys in baseball. He had (and still has, although it isn’t updated much anymore) a website that is about his love of autograph collecting, with an address for fans who want to trade signed cards or if anybody had anything to be signed. During one of his stints in Rochester, after he had lost his spot in the Twins’ bullpen following Tommy John surgery, he brought his dog to the ballpark on a “Barks in the Park” day and played toss with the dog for the “first pitch”. For some reason that stuck with me: he’d lost his spot in the big leagues, he’d gone through Tommy John surgery, and he was stuck in AAA four years after he had been seemingly called up for good. And yet he was good-natured enough to bring his dog to the ballpark as part of a promotion.

Neshek found his way back to the majors, first with San Diego, and then this season in Oakland. And now it looked like he was going to have the best day of his life: his team was about to pull off a miracle final-week comeback to win the AL West, and he was becoming a father for the first time.

Which is why it was sad to see this in my Twitter feed this morning:

Suddenly, there was a realization everything that had happened yesterday, from the results on the field, to Miguel Cabrera’s Triple Crown, to even the presidential debates, were just so trivial. It was the best day of Pat Neshek’s life, and it turned into what was probably his worst.

So keep that in your thoughts when you think you are having a bad day. And keep the Nesheks in your thoughts as they go through this horrible tragedy.

Blast From The Past: How My Predictions Look Going Into Game 162

In the past, I’ve looked at how my predictions from before the season at the Cardinal Courier turned out. So, going into Game 162 of the 162 game season, it’s time to look at how my predictions have turned out.

Let’s take a look (after the jump, of course):

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If there is a three-way tie for the American League, then the Rangers are the 2 seed

There is a possibility, however remote, that the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Texas Rangers will all end up with the same record. For example, let’s say the Rangers slump at the end of the season and go 1-2 and the the two AL East teams go 2-1. Then all three teams will have 94-68 records.
Now, in the past, this wouldn’t have mattered. They’d just declare the winner based on whoever held the tiebreaker (probably head-to-head between the teams). However, now that winning the division will mean avoiding the dreaded one-game wild card game, there will be a tiebreaker game between the Yankees and Orioles.

Now, here’s the thing. A tiebreaker game would count in the regular season standings, as will the stats. So, the winner of that tiebreaker game would have a 95-68 record. This would mean that the winner of the tiebreaker game would have a better record (by a half-game) than Texas, and would, unless if I’m missing some sort of rule, be the top seed in the American League. The Rangers, behind that half game, would be the second seed, and would face the third seed (the AL Central winner, probably the Tigers).

So, in short, if there’s a three way tie in the AL, then the AL East Champion will be the top seed in the league.

Weird, huh?