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Prediction vs. Reality: Game 4 of the 2012 World Series

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Throughout the 2012 World Series, I’ll be taking a look at what I thought I’d be writing alongside what actually happened.

What I thought I’d be writing before the series: Well, it’s over. The 2012 Major League Baseball season- started in Japan in March- has ended. And the Tigers have come out on top, winning in six games for their first title since 1984.

It was a little scary near the beginning of the series, as Verlander got dusted up before buckling down for the Game 1 win, but then San Francisco won the next two games,  as the Tigers’ seemed rusty after the long layoff after the ALCS. But they soon had shaken off that rust, winning the next three games to win the series…

What actually happened in the series: Well, it’s over. The 2012 Major League Baseball season- started in Japan in March- has ended. And the San Francisco Giants have come out on top, sweeping the Tigers for their second title in three years.

The culprit, perhaps, was the long layoff after the ALCS, something that the Tigers’ hitters only started to shake off in Game 4, far too late and not enough to make a difference beyond forcing extra innings. However, to simply say that the Tigers were rusty would be doing a disservice to the San Francisco Giants, the new champions. They outpitched, outhit, outfielded and outmanaged the Tigers, taking advantage of every opportunity they received and squashing what few rallies the Tigers were able to muster. Whether it was Sergio Romo, any of the starting pitchers, Marco Scutaro, Buster Posey or “Kung Fu Panda” himself, Pablo Sandoval, they always seemed to come through when they needed to.

And that is why they are the champions.

More on the series and the 2012 season in the coming days.

Prediction vs. Reality: Game 2 of the 2012 WS

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Throughout the 2012 World Series, I’ll be taking a look at what I thought I’d be writing alongside what actually happened.
What I thought I’d be writing: Something that started with “Madison Bumgarner has allowed the Tigers to get back into this series, as his late season struggles continued…”

What actually happened: Madison Bumgarner is back and the Giants appear to be a team of destiny, catching every break and, what’s more, taking advantage of those breaks. Plenty of teams can have a 3-1 bunt fall miraculously fair, stopping perfectly to load the bases, but not every team can then get not one but two runs, despite there being a double-play immediately after said miracle-bunt.

And then, not only that, but their pitching (starting and bullpen) has been brilliant so far. One wonders, for example, whether Prince Fielder would have been sent home if the Tigers had shown more power this series so far. That said, you could argue that it was the right move- only heads-up plays by the Giants’ fielders (especially Marco Scutaro and Buster Posey) were able to get him at the plate. It was a nice call by the umpire too, one that I worry might have been blown until I saw the replay.

Right now, the Giants are most definitely in the driver’s seat: they have defeated the undefeatable (Verlander) and silenced the Tigers’ mighty bats. And, it should be noted, they haven’t even had their two best pitchers (Cain and Vogelsong) go yet. Game 3- Sanchez vs. Vogelsong- is a must-win for Detroit. If the Tigers don’t win tomorrow, it might not simply mean that the Giants will be the World Champions, it will mean that a sweep could be in the making.

Prediction vs. Reality: Game 1 of the 2012 WS

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Throughout the 2012 World Series, I’ll be taking a look at what I thought I’d be writing alongside what actually happened.
What I thought I’d be writing: Justin Verlander is the new face of baseball. He’s won the Rookie of the Year, he’s won one Cy Young Award and will probably win another, he’s won an MVP, he’s thrown two no-hitters, he reportedly is dating SI covergirl Kate Upton, and now he can add to his list of accomplishments the title of “Mr. October,” as he wrecked the San Francisco Giants with a complete-game shutout where he struck out 12 as the Tigers won 7-0 in Game 1.

Barry Zito did better than most probably expected, but he couldn’t duplicate his NLCS Game 5 performance, giving up 4 earned runs….

What actually happened: The Giants won 8-3 in Game 1 and Pablo Sandoval is Mr. October. He may not have the same pedigree as the previous hitters to go deep thrice in one World Series game (Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson and Albert Pujols are Hall-of-Famers or will be one day, while “Kung Fu Panda” won’t), but he probably did it against the best pitching. While Reggie Jackson and Albert Pujols did it against three different pitchers and Babe Ruth did it before the flame-throwing pitcher had become commonplace, Sandoval did it with two home runs against the greatest pitcher on the planet, a previously-thought untouchable Justin Verlander. His third home run, against Al Albuquerque, must have seemed downright mundane compared to his earlier exploits.

Meanwhile, on the mound, Barry Zito has continued his resurrection, going 5.2 innings, giving up six hits and only one earned run, while himself driving in a run against Justin Verlander. If you thought that this would happen- and that he would be replaced in the game by Tim Lincecum (the first time since 1983 that a Cy Young winner relieved another Cy Young winner in the World Series)- then you are a liar.

Of course, this now puts the entire series into question. While many thought that the Tigers might be rusty, few thought that rust would hit Verlander, especially as hard as it did. What was supposed to be the 29-year-old’s coronation has now turned into a possible wake for the 2012 Detroit Tigers, who now must come back from this 1-0 deficit while dealing with the now-questionable starting pitching and a relief corps that has it’s former anchor (Valverde) in shambles. Thankfully for the Tigers, Game 2 will be against Madison Bumgarner, who was bad down the stretch and struggled in his previous postseason start this year. If the Tigers can get a jump on him and Doug Fister can play with minimal rust, they still have a good shot at making this a tied series heading back to Detroit.

The Continuum’s 2012 World Series Preview

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It’s the 108th World Series! If this were the Super Bowl, we’d give it a cool Roman numeral name, like World Series CVIII, but that’s not how it works, so it’s just called the “2012 World Series”.

On paper, it could be either a treat or a blow-out. The Tigers could maul the Giants like they mauled the Yankees, taking advantage of their superior pitching and their more powerful hitters.

But, on the other hand, the Giants will be fresher and have more momentum, having only just recently finished their series against the Cardinals. This might not seem like much, but consider that in history, there have been three times where a team that swept their LCS faced a team that went the distance in an LCS in the World Series. All three times, the team that had to go the distance won. In addition, San Francisco has the more settled bullpen, and they will have home-field advantage, primarily because various Giants (most notably the now-exiled Melky Cabrera) beat up on Detroit über-ace Justin Verlander in the All-Star Game.

So how will it turn out? Check out my analysis after the jump:

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The 3-in-1 hit Was Fine

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So, like a demolition crew, the Giants won 9-0 last night in a eventually rain-soaked Game 7. The game’s signature play, however, was Hunter Pence’s double during the third inning. You can see a GIF of the play over at Deadspin, but in essence, as the bat broke into two the barrel hit the ball not once, not twice, but thrice. This, of course, caused some weird spin to come onto the ball, badly confusing Cardinals’ rookie SS Pete Kozma, who made a bad first move that allowed what could have been a double play to instead be a double that burst the game open.

Some online have said that there is a rule that anybody who hits the ball twice or more with the bat is out and the ball is dead. See rule 6.05 H:

(The batter is out if…) After hitting or bunting a fair ball, his bat hits the ball a second time in fair
territory. The ball is dead and no runners may advance.

 

Looking at this, you would think this would mean that Pence should have been out. But, well, that’s only if you don’t read a comment below that:

Rule 6.05(h) Comment: If a bat breaks and part of it is in fair territory and is hit by a batted
ball or part of it hits a runner or fielder, play shall continue and no interference called.

 

Pence’s bat broke, and this is part of the reason why it hit the ball several times, as it trampolined back into the ball. Therefore, the play is valid.

Now, of course, there would have been no way for the umpire to have seen the bat hit several times anyway, as the umpire didn’t have the super-slow-motion replay that FOX’s broadcast had. And, besides, this type of unintentional multi-bat-hitting isn’t what the rule is there for. Instead, it is there to stop, say, a guy bunting a ball in the air and then playing fungo with it.

And now you know.

Humor: The Laws of Game 7s

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Tonight is one of the greatest events in any sport: a Game 7. While I messed up and assumed that Adam Wainwright was starting tonight, it does not change the fact that it’s a Game 7. Win or lose, do-or-die, victory means the World Series, defeat means an early tee-time or a day out hunting something other than hanging curveballs.

So, with all of that in mind, it’s time to go over the LAWS OF GAME 7.
(Note: This is humor, and not all of them are meant to be serious.)

Rule One: All Hands on Deck

This is a rule for the managers. During Game 7, all hands are on deck. And I do mean all. Everyone needs to be ready to pitch: starters, relievers, outfielders who were stud pitchers back in High School… remember, there is no tomorrow if you lose. If you have to teach your backup catcher a knuckleball on short notice in the 24th inning, you do it.

Rule Two: Nothing else is on television during a Game 7.

There’s a debate on tonight. The Bears and Lions are playing tonight. Neither will be seen on my television, unless there is a rain delay. Apologies to the President of the United States and the esteemed ex-governor of Massachusetts.

By the way, can you imagine if tonight was an ALCS game between the White Sox and whatever Mitt Romney’s favorite team is (I’m presuming either the Tigers or Red Sox)?

Presumably it would mean stuff like this:

“Mister President, I have a question on China, and, by the way, it’s tied at two in the fifth…”

Rule Three: Everything that has ever happened in a Game 7 is relevant.

Oh, sure, it may seem like past Game 7s are unimportant to this current situation, but they are not. Carlos Beltran, for example, struck out to end Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, when he was with the Mets. Matt Holliday may end up missing tonight’s game with an injury- he also missed Game 7 of last year’s World Series with an injury. Allen Craig hit a home run in last year’s World Series Game 7. The Giants have never won a best-of-7-series Game 7, falling in seven games to the Angels in 2002’s World Series, the Cardinals in the 1987 NLCS, the Yankees in 1962 and the Senators in 1924! The ghosts of Octobers past will be remembered!

Rule Four: Rain doesn’t matter.

It could rain tonight. But, guess what, the World Series is starting Wednesday, and the Tigers need to know where to fly to. Therefore, as Jayson Stark says:

Rule Five: There are no rules.

And anything can happen. That’s the beauty of Game 7.

Which team could “take” the Tigers? It could depend on how the LCS ends.

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Well, thanks to Barry Zito’s vintage performance last night, the Giants have forced the Cardinals back to San Francisco, where St. Louis and Chris Carpenter will have to beat Ryan Vogelsong in Game 6, or, failing that, will have to hope that they and Adam Wainwright can outdo Matt Cain in a climactic Game 7. In other words, it’s a whole new series that could go either way.

Meanwhile, in Michigan, the Tigers, having already swept away the complacent Yankees, are going to stay sharp by scrimmaging their Instructional League team. The Instructional Leagues are semi-formal affairs to get low-level minor leaguers- generally those who played in the short-season leagues- some more experience. It’s a win-win: the Tigers will be able to remain sharp, and the minor leaguers will be able to test themselves against, well, some of the best players on the planet.

So, assuming nobody gets hurt, the Tigers will still be relatively fresh against whoever the National League sends out against them. So, who would have a better shot against Detroit?

I’m not sure, but I feel like it would be the Cardinals. Well, unless if they have to win in seven games, in which case I’d probably go with the Giants. Well, maybe.

Here’s what I mean:
Game 1 of the World Series will be Wednesday, weather permitting. The Tigers will be starting Justin Verlander, probably followed by Scherzer, Fister and then Anibal Sanchez. A formidable group for any team.

If the Cardinals win Game 6 on Sunday, their rotation would likely have Adam Wainwright leading off, followed by Kyle Lohse (or maybe Lance Lynn)  on Thursday and then Chris Carpenter for Game 3 on Saturday. Given the fact the Cardinals have a better bullpen than the Tigers seem to have (so, is Coke officially the closer now?), this would give them a decided series advantage if the Tigers’ starters were to stumble.  But if they have to go 7, they will be stuck with sending Lohse/Lynn in the first two games with their two aces having to be held back for games 3 and 4. Sure, they will still have the bullpen and their playoff-veteran defending-championship lineup, but going against Verlander and Scherzer with your third and fourth starters seems like a recipe for going down 0-2.

By contrast, the Giants, although they will, by necessity, be unable to use Cain and Vogelsong in games 1 and 2 if they advance, will still have some good pitchers who can fill the shoes. Barry Zito, for example, still can “have it” like he did last night, and he is a veteran. Few would argue about him starting a Game 1. Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum both are covered with question marks, but I’d probably rather pick between those two guys than possibly having to send out Lance Lynn against Miguel Cabrera and friends, especially after the number that the Giants offense did against him last night (with significant aid of an errant throw off second base by Lynn).

Finally, although it was admittedly an extremely small sample size, various Giants were able to get to Justin Verlander during this year’s All-Star Game. Again, extremely small sample size (and Verlander admitted later he wasn’t pitching it like he would a regular season or playoff game), but you do have to wonder if that might give the Giants something of a psychological edge.

Or maybe Verlander and the other Tigers pitchers will just embarrass whatever team comes against them, just as they did their 1966 Orioles vs. 1966 Dodgers impression on the Yankees. Actually, that might be the most likely outcome, isn’t it?

Victory has defeated the New York Yankees

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With the utter and definitive sweep that the Detroit Tigers have just finished doing to the New York Yankees, now is as good a time as any to finally post this, which has been in the works in one form or another since Game 3 of the ALDS.

In The Dark Knight Rises, Bane, during one of his beat-downs of Batman, declares this to the Caped Crusader:

Peace has cost you your strength! Victory has defeated you!

In context, it makes sense: a ruse by Batman and Commissioner Gordon had allowed Gotham to, seemingly, become free of the crime and corruption that had been long plaguing the city. But once a true threat emerged once again, the city, and the since-retired Batman, were not prepared to face it, having grown complacent and overconfident over the years. Only after being defeated do Batman and Gordon become the people they must be in order to rid Gotham of Bane’s threat.

The same can be said for the New York Yankees. It was once said that rooting for the Yankees was like rooting for U.S. Steel, but, as Jim Caple noted in his seminal The Devil Wears Pinstripes, even U.S. Steel isn’t what it once was, but the Yankees have kept winning. Now, rooting for the Yankees must be like rooting for Wal-Mart, or, as Michael Rosenberg wrote, Goldman Sachs. There is no question whether they will be successful, the question is only whether they will be successful enough by their standards. “Their standards” are now a zero-sum game: they must win the World Series or their season- no matter what happened in it- will be a failure. They have won so much that they have changed their meaning for winning. They’ve won so much that they have their own definition of winning.

However, this seemingly-driving philosophy of a title or bust has, ironically, led to a complacency amongst both the team and their fans. They have seemingly decided that, since they are the Yankees, they should just be expected to make it to the World Series, as if putting on the pinstripes will cause their opponents to forfeit the regular season and first few rounds of the playoffs. The fans, judging by how many empty seats were present in the playoffs this year, feel the same way. Of course, this also is partly because of the complacency that the Yankees have acquired over the years as they’ve gotten drunk on success: they have become even more corporate, uncaring about the average fan. Once, back at the old stadium, it was a place for the people. Oh, sure, there were plenty of expensive seats that only hedgefund managers, rock stars, actors and politicians could afford, but there were also plenty of places for the common man, whether high up or deep in the bleachers. Then new stadium, however, dropped all pretense: the most expensive seats were literally separated from the rest by a moat of concrete walkways, and the number of upper-deck seats- traditionally the cheapest seats- were decreased.

The Yankees, no doubt, figured that their success would mean that people would pay any price for their ticket. They were wrong.

So now, the most successful franchise in baseball (but not sports) must look deep into it’s soul. It has been beaten and embarrassed. But will they rise, or will they continue with their old ways, ignoring the fans and their own history while sacrificing their happiness and soul?

Given the fact that the old ways bring lots of money, I’d doubt it. But, hey, you never know.

Profiles in Folly: The Aggressive At-Bat Stat, teaching kids to swing at everything

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I’ve got a book called The Dickson Baseball Dictionary, by Paul Dickson. It’s an expensive and expansive book, and I believe I was only able to afford it during the great Borders going-out-of-business sale of 2011. As the title suggest, it is a baseball dictionary, giving the definitions and origins of baseball terms, both common and uncommon.

Some of those terms, though, are weird, and, in other cases, kind of foolish.

Take, for example, the Aggressive At-Bat Stat. The page that has the “AAB” is available in preview format on Google, so you can check it out yourself, but in short, it is a stat, meant for Little League players, that tracks the number of times a plate-appearance ends with the batter swinging, a measure of the “determination” of the batter to try and hit the ball… even if that means him striking out or grounding weakly back to the pitcher. Dickson noted that the stat was introduced by a Stephen Barr and Brian Opitz in the New York Times in 1999, and that they believed that it was an important lesson to encourage trying to make contact no matter what, as even a strikeout would mean the kid was trying. Obviously, the stat hasn’t gained much (or any) leverage since then (a Google search on it brings up only references to Dickson or the New York Times article), and it isn’t hard to figure out why: It’s wrong way of going about it.

Okay, I’ll give that it is able to give a kid a lesson in never giving up and showing determination, but it is a bad way to teach baseball skills, particularly in our Moneyball days and especially in little league where all but the very best pitchers are going have to a hard time finding the strike zone. To encourage this stat would likely mean a great increase in strikeouts and a great decrease in base-on-balls, turning every little leaguer into a pint-sized Vladimir Guerrero, only without, y’know, being Vladimir Guerrero. The kids would easily be able to swing themselves out of a game flailing at pitches nowhere near the strike zone. Compare this to my greatest Little League moment: when I was walked, forcing in the winning run.

If I’d been going for an “Aggressive At-Bat”, I probably would have struck out and then, since I was six, been all angry about it until I got a post-game candy bar from the concession stand. Mmmm, candy bar….

Blog Dealings: Stats on this Site that probably only interest me

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WordPress has a feature where you can see from what countries people are looking at your blog from, as well as what they are searching for. The results for me are quite varied and in some cases surprising. So if you are bored, go after the jump to see some of the things I have gleaned from the data:

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