Football Continuum: Short Predictions for the NFL Divisional Round (2015)

I was 2-2 last week. Let’s see how I do this week:

 

  • I like the Patriots over the Ravens, because I long ago learned not to bet against Tom Brady, even when he is facing the one team that could be said to “have his number”.
  • I like the Seahawks over the Panthers. The sub-.500 Cinderella Story will not be able to withstand “Beast Mode”, Russell Wilson and the “12th Man”.
  • Green Bay will beat Dallas because they are home and are the better team. It could go the other way though if Rodgers’ injury is worse than some are letting on.
  • Similarly, the Broncos, being both the home team and the better team, will beat the Colts.
  • BONUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTION: Oregon over Ohio State.

 

 

Football Continuum: Short Predictions for the NFL Wild Card Round (2015)

Okay, so, it’s time for the NFL playoffs. Some quick thoughts:

  • The Cardinals will beat the Panthers, if there is any justice in the world, since the Panthers shouldn’t even be here, much less at home. Although the fact the Cardinals are on their third QB (as well as the fact the Panthers are at home) does give the Panthers a chance, I don’t see them doing the Seattle thing.
  • The Steelers will beat the Ravens, because they are at home. A cop-out, I know, but sometimes that’s something you have to go with.
  • Indianapolis will beat Cincinnati, because I like Luck more than Dalton.
  • And finally, I think the Cowboys will beat the Lions this weekend. Because if Tony Romo doesn’t go far in the playoffs this year, I don’t think he ever will.

 

The Previous BAL-KC Playoff Matchups… yes, there was one (and there could have been 3!)

Don’t believe the people who say that this ALCS is the first time that Baltimore and Kansas City’s baseball teams have met in the playoffs. It’s wrong.

Oh, to be sure, this is the first time the MLB franchises- the Royals and Orioles- have met. But it’s not the first time Kansas City and Baltimore have sent their nines against each other. It’s the second… and there could have been at least two more, had they been played. Using a few other resources, such as Baseball-Reference, SABR, and their joint wiki, here is the hidden history of Kansas City and Baltimore in the postseason..

 

1923 Little World Series: Kansas City Blues def. Baltimore Orioles, 5-4

Throughout history, there have been many incarnations of a Triple-A World Series, pitting the best teams in America that aren’t Major League. And in 1923, we had the only time that we can be sure Kansas City and Baltimore played each other in a postseason series, as they faced each other in a best-of-9 series, at the time going by the name “Little World Series”, although the Sporting News also referred to as the “Junior World Series”. It was a match-up between the American Association and the International League.

Winning the IL for the fifth straight season, the 1923 Orioles were in the midst of perhaps the greatest minor league dynasty in history, as they would ultimately win the IL every year from 1919 to 1925. Under Jack Dunn- best known for being the man who discovered Babe Ruth- they’d gone 111-53 to win the pennant by 11 games over Rochester, and would later be named as the 19th greatest minor league team in history. Their roster was stacked with players who either had or would have major league careers.

The most notable, of course, would be 23-year-old future Hall-of-Famer Lefty Grove, who pitched to a 3.11 ERA as he set the IL record for strikeouts in a season that year with 330 Ks in 303 IP. However, his 27-10 record wasn’t even the best on the team- that belonged to the 29-year-old Rube Parnham, who went 33-7 with a 3.18 ERA. The righty, interestingly enough, only pitched in six MLB games in his career for the 1916-1917 Philadelphia Athletics.

Also on the Orioles that year was Grove’s fellow Hall-of-Famer Chief Bender, then 39 years old, who had pitched in all but one of his 459 career MLB appearances on the mound (in addition to some small stints as a position player). Pitching in 18 games with Baltimore, he was less than effective and had a 5.03 ERA.

Other notable Orioles included Tommy Thomas (who would go on to pitch parts of 12 seasons in the big leagues), 2B Max Bishop (who tied for the IL lead in HR at 22 and who would go to 15th all-time in MLB OBP), Jimmy Walsh (who had been primarily an outfielder in the majors during the 1910s) and Clarence Pitt, a mid-season acquisition from Rochester who hit .357 in 1923 but who never played a MLB game.

In contrast to the runaway Orioles, the Blues had been in a neck-and-neck race before grabbing the AA title. In fact, in a article dated Sept. 30 in the October 4 issue of Sporting News, it was said that it would be “almost a miracle” if they were to come through in their race with the St. Paul Saints. That same article, entitled “St Paul Counting Team As Safely In”, is in fact more of a preview of a Saints-Orioles series than anything. But Kansas City won an astounding 10 of their last 11 games to finish the year with a 112-54 record, the second best in the history of the American Association and just barely ahead of St. Paul at 111-57. Unlike the Orioles, the Blues lacked many big names or future stars, instead being made up mainly of older veterans, such as their 37-year-old player-manager Wilbur Good (who’d played parts of 11 years in the bigs), 30-year-old Bunny Brief (who had already played all 184 of his MLB games), and 36-year-olds Beals Becker (who had been second in the 1914 National League batting race) and Lena Blackburne (most known for his role in the infamous “rubbing mud” that is placed on baseballs before being put in play). There was also 25-year-old Dud Branom, who hit .348 but would ultimately only have 30 games with the Athletics in 1927. Pitching-wise, the Blues were led by Jimmy Zinn, who went 27-6 with a 3.94 ERA, and Ferdie Schupp, who went 19-10 with a 4.23 ERA. Also in the rotation: Ray Caldwell, winner of 134 career MLB games.

Bad weather plagued the Little World Series, and in fact it ended after MLB’s World Series. Starting on October 10th in Kansas City, it didn’t end until October 25th- 16 days later- in Baltimore, where Kansas City won the 9th and deciding game 5-2, defeating Grove and Parnham in the final game behind homers by Bill Skiff and Brief. It was only because of Baltimore’s play at home that the series had even gotten that long, as Kansas City had gone 3-1 to start the series.

That would be the last time Baltimore and Kansas City would have two professional baseball teams meet in the playoffs… but it’s not the last time that it could have happened.

1929 Negro World Series: The Kansas City Monarchs would have played the Baltimore Black Sox

The Negro Leagues were infamously disorganized, with record-keeping at times being hit-or-miss and the with league schedules often haphazardly taking place between barnstorming tours and other exhibitions. In addition, there was the problem of money (several Negro Leagues ended up folding long before integration) and, of course, the racism they faced, which often closed them out of stadiums and hotels. So, with that in mind, perhaps it is isn’t surprising that the Negro World Series (also called the Colored World Series, depending on the era) was an on-and-off affair. Well, in 1929, it was an “off” year, thus depriving the world of a matchup between the Kansas City Monarchs of the Negro National League and the Baltimore Black Sox of the short-lived American Negro League.

We’ll never know what would have happened had they done so, but any such series would have featured at least three Hall of Famers: Jud Wilson (with Baltimore), Bullet Joe Rogan (with Kansas City) and Andy Cooper (also with Kansas City).

1939 Negro World Series: The Kansas City Monarchs would have played the Baltimore Elite Giants

Ten years later, the Negro American League champion Kansas City Monarchs would have faced the Negro National League champion Baltimore Elite Giants. But, like in 1929, the Negro Leagues World Series was not in existence at the time.

That was a shame, as this series would have been even more star-studded than the 1929 edition would have been. Hall of Famers Hilton Smith, Turkey Stearnes and Willard Brown, as well as Buck O’Neil (who should have been a Hall of Famer for his work off the field alone), were on the Monarchs, while the Elite Giants had a 41-year-old Biz Mackey and a 17-year-old catcher named Roy Campanella.

We’ll never know what might have happened, but it really fires up the imagination, doesn’t it?

So, there you go, the previous playoff match-ups between Baltimore and Kansas City. Oh, sure, two of them never really happened, but, still, that’s way more than is needed to render any claim that this is the first time that Kansas City and Baltimore have met in the playoffs false!

 

Yesterday’s Mr. Octobers (Oct. 2, 2014)

Now that we are in the LDS round, each Mr. October gets 3 points.

For the Orioles-Tigers game, the Mr. Octobers are Andrew Miller (pitching, for his excellent relief work) and Nelson Cruz amongst position players (for his home run, 2 hits, and 3 RBIs).

In the Angels-Royals game, the Mr. Octobers are Mike Moustakas (for his game-winning homer) and (despite his team losing) Jered Weaver for pitching.

Standings so far (PP= Position Player, P= Pitcher, * means eliminated from playoffs):

P Andrew Miller 3

PP Nelson Cruz 3

PP Mike Moustakas 3

P Jered Weaver 3

PP Brandon Crawford 1

P Madison Bumgarner 1

PP Brandon Moss 1*

P Brandon Finnegan 1

Yesterday’s Mr. Octobers (October 1, 2014)

Brandon Crawford hit a game-changing grand slam- the first in postseason history hit by a shortstop. Madison Bumgarner controlled the game from the mound, becoming the first LHP to have a complete game shutout on the road in a winner-take-all game since one “Sandy Koufax” in 1965.

So, needless, to say, they are yesterday’s Mr. Octobers!

Standings so far (PP= Position Player, P= Pitcher, * means eliminated from playoffs):

PP Brandon Crawford 1

P Madison Bumgarner 1

PP Brandon Moss 1*

P Brandon Finnegan 1

Your 2014 Baltimore Orioles, AKA “Where The Hell Did These Guys Come From?”, a Q&A

Last night, the Orioles won, walking off the Yankees in the 9th to lower their magic number to 3. It seems all but inevitable that they will clinch their first AL East pennant since 1997 within the next few days, perhaps as early as tomorrow.

And yet, many are likely asking: “Where the hell did these guys come from?”

It’s not a bad question, as the Orioles have continued to win, even after losing not one (Matt Wieters), not two (Manny Machado), but three former or current All-Stars to either injury or, in Davis’ case, suspension. In fact, if anything, they seem to have gotten better with every big player they’ve lost.

So, to answer some questions about the Orioles, here’s a Q&A:

Okay, so, the Orioles do still have Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, right?

Yes. They do.

And both of them were actually developed in the Orioles farm system?

Only half correct. Markakis was 100% home grown, but Adam Jones was originally in the Mariners system and was acquired in a trade for Erik Bedard back in 2008.

Oh, bummer for the Mariners. Anybody else from that trade on the Orioles roster?

Chris Tillman. Currently 12-5 with a 3.29 ERA.

Wow, the Mariners really screwed that up, didn’t they?

Yes, yes they did.

By the way, alongside Tillman, the Orioles rotation has done pretty good this year, what’s their story?

Wei-Yin Chen, a lefty who is currently 15-4 with a 3.59 ERA and some of the best control in the league (he has had the 5th lowest percentage of BB/9 in the AL this year), was acquired from Japan, where he was a member of the NPB Chunichi Dragons. Before that, he played in his native Taiwan.

Ubaldo Jimenez was acquired as a free agent this last offseason, and has not lived up to his $50 million dollar contract, with a ERA approaching five. It’s highly unlikely he’ll be a starter during the postseason.

Bud Norris was acquired from Houston in 2013 in a trade for L.J. Hoes and a minor leaguer.

Miguel Gonzalez was signed as a free agent in 2012, having never reached the Majors during his time in the Angels or Red Sox systems. He’s 9-8 with a 3.28 ERA.

And, finally, there is Kevin Gausman, the lone member of the starting rotation who is 100% Orioles. Although he was up and down between Baltimore and AAA Norfolk this year, at least some of that had more to do with taking advantage of MLB service time rules than his actual performance (he has a perfectly respectable 3.57 ERA). Only 23 and one of the top prospects for Baltimore, he loves powdered donuts and has a fastball that can hit triple digits at times.

Hang on, so those five guys and Chris Tillman have been the Orioles rotation this year? It looks like a bunch of guys who’d be mid-rotation guys on other teams.

Yeah. Feels that way, doesn’t it? In fact, if you were to look at FanGraphs’ pitching WAR leaders, you don’t see an Oriole until you get to 47 on the list- Tillman, who’s just ahead of Kyle Gibson of the Twins. If you were to look at the rotation’s FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching, basically what a pitcher’s ERA would be like if they were pitching in laboratory settings with average fielding, luck, etc.), you’d see none of them have one under 4.

So, perhaps the Orioles’ rotation is playing over it’s head, getting lucky and taking advantage of the offense supporting them and the defense behind them. Another way to look at it, though, would be that perhaps having 5 steady mid-rotation guys is better than having one or two aces followed by more questionable pitching. I don’t know.

Okay, enough about pitchers? How about the long-ball?

Nelson Cruz was probably among this past off-season’s best free agent signings, as he’s worked his way from PED-suspended disgrace and poor fielder to dinger-pounding DH (currently 39 on the season), although he has cooled off significantly in the second half of the season, only hitting 11 of the 39 after the All-Star Break.

Go on…

The next highest number of home runs on the Orioles is 26, by Chris Davis, who isn’t available. Adam Jones has been having a good power year, though, and is currently at 25 homers for the year. Steve Pearce, a super-utility/backup 1B/backup OF, has been having a career year at the plate with 17 HRs. He’s another good free agent signing.

Say, where did the Orioles get JJ Hardy, again?

They acquired him from the Twins in 2010 for such immortals as Jim Hoey and Brett Jacboson.

Who?

Exactly.

So, who is Jonathan Schoop and how do I say his last name?

He’s a international free agent signing from Curaco, a member of the WBC Honkballers, long one of the top infield prospects in the Orioles system, and his last name is pronounced like “scope”.

Thank you.

You’re welcome.

Now, where’d the bullpen come from?

The bullpen is basically made up of failed starting pitching prospects. Closer Zach Britton? He was a starter coming up. Same for Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter (Hunter was initially a starter for the Rangers, and was acquired in the same deal that brought Chris Davis to Baltimore) and Andrew Miller (who the Orioles acquired in July from Boston). Only Darren O’Day has never started a game in the big leagues. He, by the way, was taken off waivers from the Rangers back in 2011.

So, anybody else notable?

Delmon Young. David Lough. Ryan Flaherty. The Orioles have plenty of guys who you know you remember still being in the league but can’t quite remember much about. Well, Ryan Flaherty has been with the Orioles since he was acquired in the 2011 Rule 5 draft, but still.

So, really, how are the Orioles doing this?

They made some good acquisitions, a good bullpen and lineup, and the pitching is good enough. Also, they sacrificed Wieters’ UCL and Machado’s knee to the baseball gods. Only rational explanation.

Predictions for tomorrow’s AFC and NFC championship games

Well, here are my predictions for tomorrow’s NFL games. Who will go to the Super Bowl?

  • In the latest super-epic-deathmatch between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, I think Manning will win. However this isn’t a game between Manning and Brady, it’s a game between the Broncos and Patriots. And that, ultimately, leads to Manning’s problem and tragedy: He could do great, even spectacular, and it still might not be enough if the Patriots just play better. So if the Patriots use their momentum and suddenly-amazing running game to beat the Broncos, don’t be surprised. However, that said, I still like the Broncos in a close one, since the Broncos are a better defensive team than, say, the Colts.
  • Meanwhile, I think the Seahawks will beat the 49ers, because, well, i still don’t see anybody beating the Seahawks at home. I know, that’s a cop-out answer, but when you are this late in the playoffs, sometimes cop-out answers are necessary, since it can be so hard to predict who could win a single random sporting event.

So, there you go, the Seahawks and Broncos will meet in the Super Bowl.

Unless I’m wrong.

Which I probably am.

The Alex Rodriguez Suspension/NFL Prediction Awkward Combination Post

Okay, so, I was going to make my picks for the NFL playoffs this weekend, but then Alex Rodriguez finally received his steroid suspension from the arbitrator, a one-year ban, which is lower than the 211-game ban MLB had originally given him but still the longest suspension in the history of MLB’s drug program.

So, here are my thoughts on that:

  • Not many people win in this. MLB and Bud Selig have now been shown to have overreached with the 211-game suspension, and also will get bad publicity even as the Hall of Fame vote stuff just starts to settle (on the bright side, Alex Rodriguez won’t see a MLB field in 2014). Rodriguez, of course, misses the entire next season. The MLBPA, although many of it’s members would probably be fine with letting A-Rod burn, has been dealt a defeat, with one of their members being suspended despite a lack of a positive test.
  • Interestingly, the only people who really benefit (besides lawyers) are the New York Yankees themselves. Without having to pay A-Rod next year, they have more money to possibly use in the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes.
  • This isn’t over. It’s unlikely the federal courts are going to side with Rodriguez, but it still will keep this story in the public eye. And even after the suspension, Rodriguez will likely try to make a comeback in 2015… wherever he plays. It’s hard to see the Yankees wanting him back.
  • Oh, and guess what? Due to a loophole, Alex Rodriguez will be able to come to spring training. Yankees’ position players must be in camp by February 19! Boy, oh boy!

And now, my thoughts on this weekend’s  NFL playoff games:

  • I’m not going to go against the Seahawks at home, where the stadium has, in the past, caused small earthquakes and gotten to dangerously high levels of noise.
  • I will, however, go against the Patriots and go with the Colts. Maybe it’s the team of destiny the Colts gave last week, or maybe that’s just me.
  • I’m going with the 49ers over the Panthers. After going through Lambeau, Charlotte is probably a cakewalk.
  • I’m going with the Broncos over the Chargers. They just are the better team.

Okay, so, let’s see how well it all turns out to be!

Football Continuum: Short Predictions for the NFL Wild Card Round (2014)

Okay, so, it’s time for the NFL playoffs. Some quick thoughts:

  • I like the Chiefs over the Colts today. I’m not 100% sure why. Maybe it’s just my gut.
  • I like the Eagles over the Saints. This time, though, I have reasons. For one, it’ll be really cold in Philly, and the Saints don’t do well on the road, so the Eagles definitely have the elements and the crowd on their side.
  • Bengals over the Chargers. I feel like Andy Dalton is going to come into his own as an elite QB during this postseason.
  • I have no idea what might happen in Green Bay on Sunday. It’ll be so cold that weird things could happen, and who knows if Aaron Rodgers is truly “back” yet. So, for lack of a better prediction, I’m just going to say that the 49ers are the better team but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers win.

The Final Mr. Octobers of 2013

The Mr. Octobers for the final game of the 2013 World Series are Shane Victorino (who had 4 RBIs) and John Lackey (who threw 6.2 innings of 1-run ball).

And so, after the final tally, the Baseball Continuum hereby dubs David Ortiz and Jon Lester as the Mr. Octobers of the 2013 Postseason. They get, uhm… nothing. Still, congratulations!

Standings (PP= Position Player, P= Pitcher):

PP David Ortiz– 38

P Jon Lester– 23

PP Shane Victorino– 21

PP Matt Holliday– 18

PP Carlos Beltran– 16

P Koji Uehara– 16

P John Lackey– 15

P Justin Verlander– 14

P Michael Wacha– 13

P Clayton Kershaw– 11

P Max Scherzer– 11

P Zack Greinke– 10

P Carlos Martinez– 10

PP Yadier Molina– 10

PP Jonny Gomes – 10

P Felix Doubront– 10

P Adam Wainwright– 9

PP Jhonny Peralta – 8

PP Adrian Gonzalez– 8

PP David Freese – 6

PP Miguel Cabrera– 6

P Anibal Sanchez – 5

P Hyun-jin Ryu– 5

PP Yasiel Puig– 5

P Carlos Martinez– 5

PP Austin Jackson– 5

P Doug Fister– 5

PP Mike Napoli– 5

P Sonny Gray-3

P Gerrit Cole– 3

PP Pedro Alvarez– 3

P Mike Minor– 3

PP Hanley Ramirez– 3

PP Yoenis Cespedes– 3

P Jason Grilli– 3

PP Carl Crawford– 3

P Chris Capuano– 3

PP Seth Smith– 3

P Dan Otero– 3

PP Jose Lobaton-3

P Jake McGee-3

PP Juan Uribe-3

PP (Position Player) Russell Martin– 1

P (Pitcher) Francisco Liriano– 1

PP Desmond Jennings– 1

P Alex Cobb– 1