Tag Archives: Team USA

WBC Roster Analysis: Team USA

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So, Team USA’s roster has been released, here’s how it looks (they’ve released 27 names, the 28th will be named later):

Jeremy Affeldt – San Francisco Giants – LHP
J.P. Arencibia – Toronto Blue Jays – C
Heath Bell – Arizona Diamondbacks – RHP
Willie Bloomquist – Arizona Diamondbacks – UTL
Mitchell Boggs – St. Louis Cardinals – RHP
Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers – OF
Steve Cishek – Miami Marlins – RHP
Tim Collins – Kansas City Royals – LHP
R.A. Dickey – Toronto Blue Jays – RHP
Luke Gregerson – San Diego Padres – RHP
Derek Holland – Texas Rangers – LHP
Adam Jones – Baltimore Orioles – OF
Craig Kimbrel – Atlanta Braves – RHP
Jonathan Lucroy – Milwaukee Brewers – C
Joe Mauer – Minnesota Twins – C
Kris Medlen – Atlanta Braves – RHP
Glen Perkins – Minnesota Twins – LHP
Chris Perez – Cleveland Indians – RHP
Vinnie Pestano – Cleveland Indians – RHP
Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds – IF
Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies – IF
Giancarlo Stanton – Miami Marlins – OF
Mark Teixeira – New York Yankees – IF
Shane Victorino – Boston Red Sox – OF
Ryan Vogelsong – San Francisco Giants – RHP
David Wright – New York Mets – IF
Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays – UTL

Now, go after the jump for my analysis:

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So, here’s how Team USA looks right now (and how it may look on Thursday)

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World Baseball Classic rosters are made up of 28 players, of which 13 of them must be pitchers and two of them must be catchers. So far, these are the players who have been confirmed or all-but-confirmed to be playing for the United States in the 2013 Classic:

  1. Joe Mauer, C (Minnesota)
  2. David Wright, 3B (NY Mets)
  3. Ryan Braun, OF (Milwaukee)
  4. Giancarlo Stanton, OF (Miami)
  5. R.A. Dickey, SP (Toronto)
  6. Adam Jones, OF (Baltimore)
  7. Shane Victorino, OF (Boston)
  8. Andy Pettitte, SP (NY Yankees)
  9. Craig Kimbrel, RP (Atlanta)
  10. Chris Perez, RP (Cleveland)
  11. Luke Gregerson, RP (San Diego)
  12. Brandon Phillips, 2B (Cincinnati)
  13. Vinnie Pestano, RP (Cleveland)
  14. Ryan Vogelsong, SP (San Francisco)
  15. Jonathan Lucroy, C (Milwaukee)
  16. Mark Teixeira, 1B (NY Yankees)
  17. Glen Perkins, RP (Minnesota)
  18. Jimmy Rollins, SS (Philadelphia)
  19. Jeremy Affeldt, RP (San Francisco)

That’s 19 players: three starting pitchers, six relievers, two catchers, a first-baseman, a second-baseman, a shortstop, a third-baseman and four outfielders. Put it another way, there are 9 spots still unrevealed, and at least four of them are pitchers (with at least one of them probably a starter). So, it also follows that at most five of the remaining players are position players. Team USA still needs some more infielders, maybe a utility guy, and perhaps another catcher (reports say that Team USA will have three catchers).

Here’s my predictions of how the rest of the roster will shape up (not that I assume that Troy Tulowitzki and Dustin Pedroia are held out due to injury concerns):

20. Either Justin Verlander or Kris Medlen

Justin Verlander isn’t on the provisional roster right now, but apparently that more has to do with the fact he hasn’t said yes or no yet. He’ll apparently be making that decision by early March. Meanwhile, Kris Medlen had been mentioned as a possibility for the team, but hasn’t been mentioned in the past few days. I’m going to guess that this basically means that the fourth spot in the rotation will either be Verlander or Medlen. So either the best pitcher on the planet or the pitcher who’s team won 22 consecutive games that he started. Not a bad set of options.

21. Matt Wieters, C (Baltimore Orioles)

The third catcher isn’t Buster Posey, so it’s likely either Wieters or another American catcher like A.J. Ellis or Alex Avila or somebody like that. After pitchers, catchers are the hardest players to get to commit to the WBC.

22. Joe Nathan, RP (Texas Rangers)
23. Tyler Clippard, RP (Washington Nationals)
24. James Russell, RP (Chicago Cubs)

Okay, so now they bullpen is filled up. Nathan definitely has received an invitation and was considering, the other two are just guesses based on guys who’d fit well. One thing to note is that it’s possible (but unlikely) that Medlen could remain on the roster as a long reliever if Verlander were to pitch

25. Paul Konerko, 1B (Chicago White Sox)

It was reported that Konerko was on at the very least an early list for Team USA, so I’ll put him down for now.

26. Jay Bruce, OF (Cincinnati)

Was reportedly on a early roster but hadn’t heard yet. Would make a great bat-off-the-bench and outfielder for those days where one of the other OFs are DHing.

27. Ben Zobrist, Utility (Tampa)
28. Ian Desmond, Shortstop (Washington)

Finishing the roster by adding in a guy who can play anywhere and another shortstop.

It’ll be interesting to see how well my predictions turn out.

Late World Baseball Classic news for January 13, 2013 (Part 3 of probably 3)

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Okay, last update for the night… I hope.

    • In his article on the latest round of players to commit to Team USA, Jon Heyman mentions that Troy Tulowitzki will be held back from Team USA do to injury concerns. I had read elsewhere that Tulowitzki wanted to play in the WBC almost specifically to show how healthy he was, but maybe the Rockies are stopping him.
    • Adam Wainwright won’t be pitching in the WBC… but then again, he wasn’t even invited.
    • Barry M. Boom’s list of players who have committed to Team USA includes Jimmy Rollins, the first confirmation in recent days that he’ll be on the roster.
    • And, perhaps the biggest news:

Okay, so there you go: Justin Verlander will take part if he feels up to it. And there is still room for one more catcher on the roster (Posey? Wieters? Ellis?).

More WBC news as we get closer to roster day on Thursday.

Late World Baseball Classic news for January 13, 2013 (Part 2 of an undetermined number)

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Okay, more news on Team USA, this time from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and CBSsports.com:

R.A. Dickey, Andy Pettitte & Ryan Vogelsong in team USA rotation for wbc. story coming on @cbssports

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) January 13, 2013

Braves star Craig Kimbrel, indians teammates Chris Perez & Vinnie Pestano plus Luke Gregerson will be in Team USA’s pen. — Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) January 13, 2013

 

Team USA will be announced Thursday. more stars will be named. #USA — Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) January 13, 2013

 //

So, the big news from these that we didn’t already know:

R.A. Dickey and Ryan Vogelsong, who had been mentioned as possibilities, are now probable. Luke Gregerson, Padres’ middle reliever, is also in, and continues to give good depth to the US bullpen. And Heyman says that there are more “stars” to be named. Take of that as you will.

I’ll have something on the Team USA players revealed so far either late tonight or sometime tomorrow.

Late World Baseball Classic news for January 13, 2013 (Part 1 of an undetermined number)

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Okay, late news on the World Baseball Classic:

  • As a patriotic song once said, “The Yanks are coming, The Yanks are coming!” In this case (according to Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com), it’s Mark Teixeira (who played for the USA in the ’06 classic) and Andy Pettitte (the first starting pitcher to be firmly said to probably be in the WBC). Given the fact that usually very few Yankees play in the WBC, this could be a credit to the pull of Joe Torre.
  • Miguel Tejada hasn’t received a invitation to play for the Dominican Republic yet, apparently, so some of his fans are starting to campaign for him on Twitter.

More news as it happens

Thursday is World Baseball Classic Roster Day

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At least, according to Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com it is:

Judging by the time of 10 AM, I’m guessing that we will see the rosters revealed on the Hot Stove program of MLB Network. MLB Network will likely have a special about the rest at 4 (EDITED IN LATER: Yes, they will.). And I, of course, will be doing reviews and news on the Continuum as well.

Late World Baseball Classic news for January 12 (Part 2 of who-knows-how-many, 9:20 PM)

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Well, two more commitments for the WBC since 6 o’clock: Chris Perez and Vinnie Pestano, both relievers (and good ones) for the Cleveland Indians.

Oh, and Danny Valencia, who may have played had Team Israel qualified, realized a pattern in a lot of these WBC tweets, decided to make a little joke:

More tomorrow and in the coming days.

2013 WBC Team USA projections Version 2.2

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It’s time for another round of WBC projections for Team USA! Like last time, players who have been absolutely super-confirmed to be playing are in italics. I note the changes from last time where applicable.

A refresher on my selection rules/assumptions:

  • Any player coming off a major injury or who has a history of injuries is unlikely to participate. This is especially true for the pitchers.
  • Players that will be on new teams are less likely to participate, but shouldn’t be completely ignored, with the exception of pitchers.
  • Teams are made up of 28 players, of which 13 of them must be pitchers and two of them catchers.
  • The pitch count rules make relievers extremely important.

Go after the jump for the projections:

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Coming Soon: WBC Simulations on Out of the Park Baseball

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I’m a big fan of a game called Out Of The Park Baseball. It’s a baseball simulator, which can let you do almost anything. If you want to, you can replay baseball history just as it was, or you could play a whole new history with fictional characters, or even do a bit of both, perhaps using fictional teams but real players. It’s the spiritual descendant of APBA and Strat-O-Matic.

I’m, however, going to use it to do some simulations of World Baseball Classic baseball. Essentially, I downloaded a roster set that has the rosters of Major League Baseball and the minors at the end of the 2012 season. I then deleted all of the leagues, making everybody free agents. I then created a league of National teams: the USA Americans, the Dominican Republic Dominicans, the Italy Italians, etc.

And now I am putting players on the teams, as well as updating the attributes of some of the players (you can enter what their stats in a major league environment was and it’ll give you what their most recent power, contact, etc. abilities would be- otherwise it’d be going off of 2011 numbers, making Mike Trout merely a prospect instead of the most exciting player in baseball).

So far, I’ve created the USA, the Dominican, Australia, Italy (which has a heavy number of Italian-Americans) and I’m working on Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Mexico and Canada. So, for example, I could play a game with a lineup like this:

Screen Shot 2012-12-23 at 12.14.28 PM

It isn’t a perfect simulation: the simulation lacks pitch-count rules (thus allowing Justin Verlander to complete-game shutout the Italians and Australians almost any time he faces them) and sometimes the decisions made by the AI are a bit wonky (it made Joe Mauer the starting 1B originally, and had Ben Zobrist the starting 2B instead of the super-utility guy off the bench.. and I’m still trying to figure out why they have Clayton Tanner as the ace of the Australians and not Travis Blackley)… but it’s neat. So I’ll be sharing some of the stuff from it in the next few days.

For example, I think it’s safe to say, based on this simulation of 1000 games between Team USA and Italy, that the Americans should easily win the Pool D game against Italia:

Screen Shot 2012-12-23 at 12.30.45 PM

2013 WBC Team USA projections Version 2.1

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THE LATEST PROJECTIONS CAN BE FOUND HERE.

Well, with some players beginning to confirm their inclusion or non-participation in the WBC, here are my latest projections. While Team USA is hurt by the fact that Bryce Harper (who likely wants to spend the spring preparing for what will be just his third year as a professional) and David Price are apparently not going to take part, it is bolstered by the fact that Joe Mauer and David Wright have confirmed that they are in. Starting with this set of projections, players who have confirmed that they are participating will be italicized.

A refresher on my selection rules/assumptions:

  • Any player coming off a major injury or who has a history of injuries is unlikely to participate. This is especially true for the pitchers.
  • Players that will be on new teams are less likely to participate, but shouldn’t be completely ignored, with the exception of pitchers.
  • Teams are made up of 28 players, of which 13 of them must be pitchers and two of them catchers.
  • The pitch count rules make relievers extremely important.

Now, go after the jump for the full look:

Continue reading →