Great Predictions in History: Umpires work both leagues

It seems surprising now, but until relatively recently the AL and NL had different sets of umpires, often trained by different people and using different equipment. It wasn’t until 2000 that the two leagues unified the umpiring crews.

That said, it’s not like people hadn’t thought about it before. Just look at this headline from a 1949 issue of Baseball Digest:

2013 WBC Projections: Venezuela

Venezuela. After the USA and Dominican, it provides the most players to the big leagues. But, much like the USA and DR, it hasn’t really played up to the number of big leaguers they have. Their best finish has been third in the 2009 Classic (and that was only because they were ahead of Team USA because of more wins during the primaries). However, they cannot be counted out. Venezuela is a country that often has divided and fluid politics that makes Washington look like a elementary school, but one thing binds them all together: baseball.

As always, these are the rules of how I pick this roster, a combination of the official WBC rules on rosters and some unwritten rules that emerged during the first two tournaments:

  • Any player coming off a major injury or who has a history of injuries is unlikely to participate. This is especially true for the pitchers.
  • Players that will be on new teams are less likely to participate, but shouldn’t be completely ignored, with the exception of pitchers.
  • Teams are made up of 28 players, of which 13 of them must be pitchers and two of them catchers.
  • The pitch count rules make relievers extremely important.

So, after much research and thought, here are my projections for the 2013 Venezuelan National Team (after the jump):

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Great Predictions in History: Expansion will water down the Majors… in the late 60s.

Occasionally, you hear about how watered down the Majors are compared to what they’d be if there were fewer teams. There is some truth to that, but it ignores the fact that A) the fact that so many cities can now see Major League Baseball is good not only for baseball, but America and B) the so-called “Golden Age” that those writers so often harken back to was the 40s and 50s- when there were far fewer sources of foreign talent and where several teams still hadn’t desegregated.

Of course, this is in no way new, as you’ll see in a April 1968 Baseball Digest excerpt after the jump:

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Great predictions in history: The NL is lost to New York City forever

From the December 1957 edition of Baseball Digest comes this story:

Although, to be fair to Daley, he mentioned in the article that that statement was only true if there wasn’t expansion:

“Only in such an eventuality- at least, that’s the firm conviction here- can the National League re-establish itself in New York.”

 

However, he makes some other rather hilarious-in-hindsight ideas: the minor leagues would be doomed because every city with a halfway decent stadium would want a team, that Commissioner Ford Frick should become a “dictator, undemocratic and un-American though it be” to put a stop to all the team-moving madness, and that the move of the “over-the-hill” Dodgers to Los Angeles wouldn’t get them back their “lost youthfulness.” Considering that the Dodgers would win three World Series titles and four NL pennants in the ten years after they went to Los Angeles, I’d say Daley didn’t expect such things as “Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale becoming one of the best 1-2 pitching combo in baseball history” and the arrival of guys like Maury Wills and Willie Davis.

By the way, if you don’t already know, National League baseball returned to the five boroughs in 1962, although I’m sure some would argue that the Mets played more like they were in the International League until 1969.

 

Great predictions in History: Interleague Play… in 1955

From Baseball Digest in January 1954:

Interleague in 1955? Well, apparently it was considered. Nate Dolin, the Cleveland Indians director of operations and AL schedule representative, wanted it to happen. He even got Walter O’Malley to agree with him. He proposed that the season would look like this:

  • 158 game schedule (instead of 154)
  • The 22 games-between-each-team-in-their-league balanced schedule would be cut to 18 games between each team in their league.
  • Each club would have two two-game series with each team of the opposing league.

Of course, it never happened. But it’s interesting to note that, starting next year, interleague won’t only just exist but will be expanded: there will be at least one interleague game every day, since both leagues will have 15 teams.

But it could have happened… even earlier!

Predictions from history: The 1950 World Series would be between the Tigers and Dodgers

From the November 1949 issue of Baseball Digest:

Actually, it ended up being the Yankees vs. Phillies. They were close though: both the Tigers and Dodgers finished second in their leagues!

Blast from the past: How my predictions look so far

Back in April, I wrote my predictions of what would happen in the 2012 season as part of my column for the Cardinal Courier. I’m going to return to those predictions now and in the future to see how I’m doing. Predictions are in BOLD, followed by how I’m doing so far.

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder will do fine in their new cities (Anaheim and Detroit, respectively).

Well, Prince is doing fine. So chalk that up this prediction as being half-right as of right now.

Justin Verlander will win the AL Cy Young again, but won’t win the MVP again. Instead, Albert Pujols will. He tends to do that.

Too early to tell if Verlander will win the Cy Young again, but I think it’s safe to say that, barring an utterly unbelievable season from here on out, Pujols isn’t winning MVP. Again, half-right as of right now.

The new addition of a extra wild card will make the post-season race more entertaining most years, but this year it will feel underwhelming, since last season’s playoff race was so historic.

Too early to tell.

The Marlins will be the most entertaining ballclub in years, and the second season of The Franchise will be one of the most hilarious documentary series ever created, if only because it will have raw, uncensored, Ozzie Guillen rants.

The first episode (a preview episode, really) of The Franchise was, indeed, quite hilarious with it’s uncensored Ozzie. Problem is, the situation that Ozzie got himself in (the Castro comments) wasn’t. So I guess it is too early to tell.

The Nationals and Royals will be the “surprise” teams of 2012.

Nationals are doing well on this so far. Royals… not so much.

The Mets will stink.

They’ve done surprisingly well so far, but there is still a lot of season left.

This will be the last season for Chipper Jones (who’s confirmed as much), Mariano Rivera (who has hinted as much), Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Roy Oswalt (if he even signs anywhere), Johnny Damon (if he even signs anywhere) and Arthur Rhodes (did you even know he was still in the league?)

Chipper is a yes. Mariano apparently will try to come back from his injury. Oswalt still hasn’t signed. Damon is now with the Indians. Arthur Rhodes has yet to say.

If Twins first-baseman Justin Morneau suffers concussion symptoms again, he will retire for medical reasons. He will go down as one of the great “what might have beens” in sports history.

Hasn’t had concussion symptoms. Thankfully.

Yu Darvish and Yoennis Cespedes, the two big imported players this season (Darvish from Japan, Cespedes defected from Cuba), will do fine, although Darvish is the one more likely to win AL “Rookie” of the Year.

More or less correct.

Bryce Harper will arrive by mid-summer and will become one of the most polarizing athletes this side of Tim Tebow.

Arrived earlier than expected, and has really only served to make Cole Hamels polarizing.

Matt Kemp will win NL MVP, but won’t have a 50-50 season, like he said he is aiming for.

Doubtful on the 50-50. Depends on how well he returns from the DL for the MVP.

Roy “Doc” Halladay will be the NL Cy Young winner. This is, of course, hardly a bold prediction.

He hasn’t been having the best of seasons, by his standards.

Alex Rodriguez will tie Lou Gehrig’s record for career grand slams.

Not yet.

Bryan Stow, the Giants fan who was savagely beaten outside of Dodger Stadium last opening day, will be throwing a ceremonial first pitch out at AT&T Park by the end of the season. And everyone will cry.

He appeared in a video message on opening day but isn’t yet healthy enough to do a first pitch.

Young Royals slugger Eric Hosmer will win the Home Run Derby, fittingly held in Kansas City.

Hosmer has been having a sophomore slump, so it’s unlikely that he will be an all-star.

The NL will win the All-Star Game.

Too early to tell, and a crapshoot to predict anyway.

At least one Cy Young candidate will have his season ended early when he requires Tommy John Surgery.

Depends on if you count Brian Wilson. I don’t think he was a Cy Young contender.

Every home run hit by Ryan Braun will be scrutinized.

Not so much.

The Astros will spend their last year in the National League by being so irrelevant everybody will forget they are in any league.

Actually, they are doing relatively well so far.

Joe Mauer will drop his good manners for a few minutes and ask that the walls at Target Field be moved in.

Not yet, but you know he’s thought about it.

The Cubs and White Sox will both stink, to the point where fans will be chanting for the Bears by late June.

The Cubs do stink, and the White Sox are under .500 so far.

Andy Pettitte’s comeback won’t go as well as he and the Yankees are hoping.

Too early to tell.

Giancarlo Stanton will be referred to as Mike Stanton many times, which isn’t surprising, as he was going by Mike Stanton until this offseason before beginning to use his real first name.

He has.

Buster Posey will be back and will be an All-Star.

He probably will be.

Ichiro will continue his downward slide, but still will probably be the best hitter on the Mariners.

As of this morning, he was hitting a hideous-for-him .288. That’s the highest BA, but not the highest OPS, on the Seattle roster.

The Cardinals and Reds will have a bench-clearing brawl.

Not yet, thankfully.

The Reds will, shockingly, have the best record in the National League, as their pitchers return from their injury-prone 2011 season and they’ve added the better-than-his-win-loss-record-suggests Mat Latos. Oh, and they are in the same division as the Cubs, Pirates and Astros, a great way to inflate a win total.

They aren’t doing bad, but they aren’t the best record in the NL. They merely are at a 19-17 record.

The Orioles will remain three-to-five years away from a return to glory, just like they have been every year since 1997.

I’ll let you know in a few months.

AL Division winners: Yankees, Tigers and Angels (best record).

NL Division winners: Phillies, Reds (the surprise best record in the NL) and Diamondbacks.

The AL Wild Cards will be the Rays and the Rangers. The Rays will win the game.

The NL Wild Cards will be the Giants and the Marlins. The Giants will win the game.

The ALDSes will see the Angels beat the Rays and the Tigers beat the Yankees.

The NLDSes will see the Phillies beat the Diamondbacks and the Giants defeat the Reds.

The Tigers will beat the Angels in the ALCS

The Phillies will outlast the Giants in the NLCS.

The Phillies will defeat the Tigers in the World Series.

Still early, but I’m starting to think my predictions are going to be off…

But, hey, you never know.

Correct Predictions in History: Retractable Roofs

In the past week (the first in the Continuum’s history), I’ve brought predictions of yesteryear about how Kiko Garcia was going to be the Orioles’ shortstop of the ’80s and how bizarre the 2044 baseball season would be. So, to balance out the books a bit, here’s a article from the July 1945 issue of Baseball Digest:

Yes, friends, not only did Fred Russell of the Nashville Banner think that one day baseball defeat the “weather angle”, he thought that it would be possible to do it with a retractable roof. While Russell’s “apparatus” (as you can read about if you head to the Google Books link) is one of canvas (similar to how the Roman Colosseum had canvas to shade some of it’s seats centuries ago), he is more or less correct in his prediction that ball stadiums would be built to hold games despite the weather. However, he was wrong in how long it would take: it wouldn’t be until 1989 that a baseball team played in a stadium with a fully functional retractable roof (Toronto), although the Expos’ tried in Olympic Stadium (the “retractable” part of it never worked).

Great Predictions in History: Kiko Garcia will be the Orioles’ shortstop of the future (in 1980)

Google Books has lots of old Baseball Digest issues available. It is interesting to see how previous generations thought. And, so often, it is fun to see how wrong they were. Take this headline from March, 1980.

Kiko Garcia had an okay career and was able to stick around baseball for parts of 10 seasons, but ultimately he ended his career with a middling .239 BA, .286 OBP and .323 SLG. He had a total of 12 career home runs.

Funnily enough, at the time this was published in Baseball Digest, there was a third baseman in Orioles camp who, just the year before had hit a respectable .286 between Miami and Charlotte. He was headed towards a breakout 1980 season, where he’d hit .276/.367/.492 and hit 25 home runs. The year after that, he was in Rochester. And the year after that, he was Rookie of the Year in Baltimore… as a shortstop. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. He was Cal Ripken Jr.

Kiko Garcia, by the way, was sent to Houston in 1981 and never played in more than 100 games again.