The Hidden Beauty of the World Baseball Classic

One of the complaints about the World Baseball Classic- alongside ones such as worries about injuries and the fact that it takes place during a time of year that already has an A-level sporting event (March Madness)- is that it’s nothing that couldn’t already be seen. After all, all of the world’s greatest baseball players (save for a few in Japan and Cuba) are already playing in Major League Baseball, or so the argument goes, so the novelty of seeing a top Mexican pitcher going against a top American hitter isn’t that amazing.

And that, perhaps, may be true. But it forgets the fact that not everyone is a superstar. To to say that the WBC is a tournament between stars is like saying that March Madness is simply the Final Four. And to do that would be to sell it short.
Take the day game between Brazil and Colombia. Brazil, as I noted earlier, is a country that only recently has begun to develop a baseball tradition, and most of it’s players are either of Japanese or Cuban descent. Only one of them, Yan Gomes, has played in the Major Leagues, and he didn’t have a permanent spot this year, shuttling between AAA and the big club. Some of them have had action in Japan’s top leagues, and there are even a few guys who might one day join Gomes in the majors, but they are, overall, a band of underdogs, bound together only by their country and their love of the game. And yet, they had already defeated the far more talented-on-paper Panama team, and were now a win away from going to the qualifying round’s finals.

By contrast, Colombia had numerous either current or former Major Leaguers, including Edgar Renteria. They’d already demolished Nicaragua’s team, one that also had more professionals with better pedigrees than the Brazilians.

And yet, a funny thing happened: Brazil won. And they did it in the most amazing of ways, showing timely hitting, good defense, and a pitching staff that houdini’d it’s way out of numerous jams. If one were to just look at the characters involved in this drama, you would think it would end a different way.

Take Gabriel Asakura, for example. Japanese-Brazilian who plays collegiate baseball at Cal State Los Angeles. He came in in the top of the sixth with Brazil holding a perilous 2-1 lead… and he got a 1-2-3 inning against ballplayers who are getting game-checks during the season. Then he comes back out in the seventh, and he strikes out former Red Sox farmhand Reynaldo Rodriguez and then does the same (looking) to Edgar Renteria. The same Edgar Renteria who was an All-Star five times. After two men reached (due to a single and then a HBP), Asakura finished the inning by striking out Luis Martinez, who had gotten some time with the Rangers this season.

And this kid was a Collegiate. And not even a Division I collegiate, he pitches in Division II of the NCAA.

And yet, he wasn’t the most improbable pitcher who went against the professionals. No, that title goes to Daniel Missaki, a 16-year-old from Brazil’s amateur leagues. And it wasn’t like he came in for garbage time. He came in to get the final two outs of the game, with the bases loaded, and former big-leaguer Jolbert Cabrera and the aforementioned Luis Martinez due up.

And, would you believe it? He got them both.

So, sure, you can see the best-of-the-best go against each other every day of the MLB season… but to see young Davids face professional Goliaths? That type of stuff you can only see in the World Baseball Classic.

2013 WBC Team USA projections Version 2.01

(EDITED IN ON DEC. 31: As of this writing, the most recent projection for the United States can be found here.)

With more stuff coming out about what players might or might not be taking part in the WBC, here’s another update of how Team USA looks. As we get closer to the tournament and some players start to drop out (Chris Sale, for example, has said he will probably won’t take part), it becomes clear that America’s best strength is it’s depth. Other countries have a line of superstars, but not much below that, but Team USA has a player pool that lets it take a licking but keep on ticking. Sale is out, you say? Well, there’s still plenty of good lefty starters like Gio Gonzalez, Wade Miley, Matt Harrison, C.J. Wilson, Madison Bumgarner, Cliff Lee, Derek Holland….

You get the idea.

A refresher on my selection rules/assumptions:

  • Any player coming off a major injury or who has a history of injuries is unlikely to participate. This is especially true for the pitchers.
  • Players that will be on new teams are less likely to participate, but shouldn’t be completely ignored, with the exception of pitchers.
  • Teams are made up of 28 players, of which 13 of them must be pitchers and two of them catchers.
  • The pitch count rules make relievers extremely important.

Now, go after the jump for the full look:

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Headlines from around the Continuum: November 17, 2012

Baseball headlines from around the world, courtesy of The Newseum

Story: Melky Cabrera signs with Toronto Blue Jays

Saturday (Toronto) Star: Here’s to a good year- Reported signing of Melky Cabrera caps week of impact moves for Jays

Toronto Sun: JAYS JUICED- New York who? Good luck in Boston Farrell. Orioles, Rays… meet the Jays, the new BEASTS of the East!

Story: World Baseball Classic Qualifiers Continue

La Estrella de Panama: Canaleros no pueden perder otro juego (Translation: The Canal-Men cannot lose another game)

La Prensa (Panama City, Panama): Panamá se juega la vida (Panama is playing for their lives)

La Prensa (Managua, Nicaragua): Colombia gana con autoridad (Colombia wins with authority)

(The headline I could find from Colombia was very generic, essentially saying the score, who they beat, and what the event they were taking part in was. Therefore, I’m not including it)

World Baseball Classic Qualifier Preview: New Taipei City (Taipei, Phillippines, Thailand, New Zealand)

The “Asian pool” of the World Baseball Classic qualifier takes place in Taipei, and the home team should be able to easily win it, and surely that is what the tournament’s organizers expect, since it has already been announced as a host for the WBC in the round of 16. The other three countries playing, while interesting, have nowhere near the pedigree that the Taiwanese have, nor- with the exception of the individual player here and there- the talent. In fact, the only reason the other three countries will have any chance whatsoever likely will be because of the so-called “passport players” that the lenient WBC eligibility rules will allow them to bolster their rosters with.
Head below the jump for a pool preview:

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My WBC Projections as of Nov. 4, 2012

One of the most popular parts of the Baseball Continuum have been the WBC roster projections. Therefore, here’s a look at my roster projections so far, with links to the most recent versions of each roster, in descending order of freshness (the higher up they are, the more recent the roster projection):

Dominican Republic (Version 2.0)

United States of America  (Version 2.00001)

The Netherlands

Australia

Canada

Panama

Puerto Rico

Mexico

Venezuela

 

The following countries are in various stages of projection development: Japan, Cuba, Korea, Taipei, revamps of Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and Puerto Rico.

WBC 2013 Projections: Dominican Republic Version 2.0

My previous projections for the Dominican Republic are now rather out-of-date due to injuries, etc. So, here are new projections, taking into account new developments as well as injuries that might take out certain players. Like the USA projections, this is a ground-up rebuild, and not simply a cut-and-paste with changes.

The usual rules:

  • Any player coming off a major injury or who has a history of injuries is unlikely to participate. This is especially true for the pitchers.
  • Players that will be on new teams are less likely to participate, but shouldn’t be completely ignored, with the exception of pitchers.
  • Teams are made up of 28 players, of which 13 of them must be pitchers and two of them catchers.
  • The pitch count rules make relievers extremely important.

So, after the jump, my projections for the Dominican Republic WBC team:

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Early Look at the Panama City and Taipei pools of the WBC

Okay, now the other two qualifying pools for the WBC don’t get started until November (as opposed to the first two, which are coming up THIS VERY WEEK), but I think it’s a good idea to do an early look at them:

The PANAMA CITY pool features Panama, Brazil, Nicaragua and Colombia. This is, by far, the best qualifying group. All four of these countries had at least one MLB player active this season, three of them have professional leagues (although admittedly the Panamanian, Nicaraguan and Colombian leagues are often in a financially fragile position), and the fact the group is in November means MLB players will be able to take part. It is also, in international sports parlance, a “group of death”. A “group of death” is a group that is so talented or evenly-matched that there is almost no margin for error. This is the group that has the best worst team (Brazil, which has produced more minor leaguers than you’d think) and a best team (Panama) that, while the favorite, is definitely beatable. I did projections for Panama earlier this year, so you can look there to get an idea of who they will be sending in. Colombia will likely have the Solano brothers of Donovan (a 2B/Utility with the Marlins this season) and Jhonathan (a catcher with the Nationals, although injuries may sideline him), as well as pitchers like Ernesto Frieri, Jose Quintana, Julio Teheran and perhaps a coming-out-of-retirement-for-his-country Edgar Renteria. Nicaragua could have young Mariners organization pitcher Erasmo Ramirez joined by the Padres’ 25-year-old SS Everth Cabrera and veteran pitchers Wilton Lopez and Vicente Padilla. Even Brazil could have a MLB-experienced player in Yan Gomes, who became the first Brazil-born MLB player earlier this year when he made his debut with the Blue Jays. It should be a highly competitive and entertaining pool, and although I think either Panama or Colombia will emerge from it, there are plenty of question marks around it and I wouldn’t be that surprised if any of the teams involved got through (okay, I would be pretty surprised if Brazil got through, but it wouldn’t be as surprising as, say, France or the Czech Republic getting through).

On the other hand, though, the TAIPEI pool of Taipei, New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines will be the most lopsided of all of the pool. Chinese Taipei (not called Taiwan in international competition due to political considerations) will win this group. Even if New Zealand, Thailand and the Philippines were to pool their resources and throw out a combined team against Taipei, Taipei would win. The only reason Taipei is even having to qualify is because in 2009 they had a game against China in which they played their worst game and China played it’s best. However, Taipei shouldn’t have that problem against their pool, even if the other three get substantial help from passport players.

More detailed previews will be in the future.

World Baseball Classic Qualifier Preview: Regensburg (Germany, Canada, Czech Republic, Great Britain)

As I have previously mentioned, the World Baseball Classic’s qualifying rounds are about to start. I have, of course, done extensive projections for many of the already-qualified teams, but I am also doing overviews for each qualifying pool as rosters are released. This time: the pool in Regensburg, Germany.
Go after the jump. All rosters are from Baseball America.

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World Baseball Classic Qualifier Preview: Jupiter, Florida (Israel, Spain, France and South Africa)

The World Baseball Classic starts soon! Well, the qualifiers do, anyway. For the first time ever, there are four qualification pools to decide who reaches the Round of 16. Two of those pools- in Panama and Taipei- will be in November. But first there are two pools that start in about a week. One of them is in Jupiter, Florida (mainly because the teams in it don’t exactly have baseball fields in their countries) and the other is in Regensburg, Germany. The Jupiter pool starts slightly before the Germany pool, so I’ll be covering that one first, covering the baseball heritage (or, in some cases, lack thereof) of the the countries and looking at their teams and chances.

So, go after the jump for my preview of the 2012 WBC Qualifier in Jupiter, Florida. All rosters are from Baseball America.

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2013 WBC projections: The Netherlands

The Netherlands was the biggest surprise of the 2009 WBC, defeating the Dominican Republic twice and advancing to the second round. Then, in the 2011 World Cup, they actually won the whole tournament, beating out the mighty Cubans in the finals. Clearly, the Dutch are the class of European baseball, and have taken their place as one of the finest baseball nations in the world… sort of.

I say “sort of” because the Netherlands is something of a misnomer. When you first hear of a Dutch baseball team, you might think that they are all from Holland, perhaps playing Honkbal (as baseball is called in Dutch) by windmills or dykes. However, that isn’t exactly true. You see, the Kingdom of the Netherlands is a far larger state than simply Holland. Several Caribbean countries, such as Curacao and Aruba, are part of the Netherlands. This isn’t to say that there aren’t baseball players from the European Netherlands- there are, and in fact one of the two professional baseball leagues in Europe is based there.

The Dutch figure to bring the majority of their previous international teams to the 2013 WBC, featuring players from the US Minors, the Dutch Hoofdklasse and perhaps a few Major Leaguers. They certainly won’t be favored to make noise in the tournament, but it’s unlikely that they will go quietly, and it’s possible that the Oranje just may again shock the world.

So, after much research, the Dutch national team can be found under the jump. The usual rules apply:

  • Any player coming off a major injury or who has a history of injuries is unlikely to participate. This is especially true for the pitchers.
  • Players that will be on new teams are less likely to participate, but shouldn’t be completely ignored, with the exception of pitchers.
  • Teams are made up of 28 players, of which 13 of them must be pitchers and two of them catchers.
  • The pitch count rules make relievers extremely important.

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