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Preview/Predictions for the 2013 ALCS

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I have no clue. I have basically zero clue as to what will happen in this upcoming series between the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers. It’s like trying to determine who would win between an unstoppable force (the Red Sox) and an immovable object (the Tigers, especially their pitching staff). That said, there are some hints as to what the outcome may be, and it suggests that the Red Sox will be the ones coming out on top.

Most importantly, the Red Sox have their rotation set-up how they want it, a result of finishing off the Rays in four while the Tigers had to go five against Oakland. That means Max Scherzer will have to wait until game 2 and Verlander won’t be in until game 3. In contrast, the Red Sox have it all set up for Jon Lester to pitch game 1 against Anibal Sanchez, with Clay Buchholz set up to go ace-on-ace against Max Scherzer. In other words, they are set up to have a great chance at winning game one and have perhaps an even chance at game 2. And, in fact, that could be pretty important for the Red Sox, as it would mean they could stumble against Verlander and still be in command of the series.

Besides that, though, I feel like the Red Sox have an advantage in bullpen and in general health. The Tigers’ bullpen was rather shaky during the ALDS (remember how they allowed the tying run to come to the plate in game 5?), which was the complete opposite of what the Red Sox was, as Koji Uehara (aside from one bad pitch to Jose Lobaton) was lights-out and Craig Breslow was similarly effective. As for health, despite that home run, it’s obvious that Miguel Cabrera is still far from what he’s supposed to be, and that could change everything.

With the better pitching set-up, better bullpen, and better health, I’m going with the Red Sox in 6.

Preview/Predictions for the 2013 NLCS

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It could be a classic series in the making in the National League Championship Series. After all, we are seeing two pitching-rich members of the “Original 16” facing off, with exciting hitters old and new dotting their lineups as well. Who holds the edge? Well… I don’t know. As I’ve said before and will say again, it’s really difficult to predict a series, where one funny hop or blown call can change everything. So, let’s go aspect by aspect.

First, starting pitching. In this aspect, the Dodgers have an edge. Not too big of an edge, but an edge nontheless. First off, the fact that they were able to finish off the Braves in four games means that they can set up their rotation roughly how they want, with the exception that they will have to swap Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw in the rotation, which, while not what they would have preferred, is hardly a death-blow. By comparison, the Cardinals will be unable to call upon their ace, Adam Wainwright, until Game 3, although they will be able to have young phenom Michael Wacha go against Kershaw. This leads to another advantage that the Dodgers’ rotation has over the Cardinals: depth. Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly are certainly capable pitchers who could defeat the Dodgers, but they aren’t quite at the one-two punch level of Hyun-Jin Ryu (who would be a Rookie of the Year candidate most seasons) or Ricky Nolasco.

Now, lineup. This goes in St. Louis’ favor. They have a deeper bench, more depth, and have Carlos Beltran, who, as has been noted before and will be noted again, is the greatest postseason hitter of our era, if not any era. The redbirds scored 77 more runs this season than any other NL team, and there’s really only one hitter of their eight position players (Pete Kozma) that I wouldn’t fear due to either numbers or reputation.

So, what about bullpen? I give this one to the Dodgers, slightly. Kenley Jansen is an awesome reliever, especially when you consider he once was a catcher. And they also have Brian Wilson, who seems to be back to normal (or whatever he calls normal), as well as other good relievers like J.P. Howell. While the Cardinals certainly aren’t hurting in the bullpen, with Trevor Rosenthal at the helm most notably, but I feel like the Dodgers have a slight advantage here- I’m not entirely sure why, I just feel that way.

However, there are other factors to keep in mind: the Cardinals have home field and more experience, for example, and, well, Don Mattingley still hasn’t won a World Series, despite playing for and then coaching with the Yankees, so you have to wonder if there is some sort of hex upon him.

I don’t believe in hexes, though. Well, not for the purposes of this article at least, as I predict the Dodgers will win in 7.

Incredibly short preview/predictions for the ALDS matchups

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Due to a personal issue called “the dog was being psychotic all night” (don’t worry, he is now calm and adorable), I was unable to write longer previews, so here are the quick ones:

First off, I like the Rays in their matchup against the Red Sox, as they have momentum and arguably more pitching depth, and also because I believe that Joe Maddon is a mad genius who I will never doubt ever again, even if he did have a Molina brother try to steal a base, which seems like one of the most firm rules in baseball. I’d say Rays in five.

Next, Oakland-Tigers. I got the Tigers. I mean, their pitching staff is nuts, and they also have one Miguel Cabrera, who is pretty good at baseball. However, the Athletics do have home-field advantage, and their young staff and underrated lineup mean they should not be underestimated. Still, I predict Tigers in five.

(Come back on Saturday for a full look at the Mr. Octobers of the first two days of the LDS round)

 

Previews/Predictions for the two NLDS series

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Okay, so, it’s time to predict the NLDS series! Here we go:

Pirates vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals will probably end the Pirates fairy-tale season, and have to be considered one of the favorites to win it all. For one, their pitching is better set up, a result of the Pirates having to use Francisco Liriano in the Wild Card game (although it will be interesting to see how wonder-kid Gerrit Cole will do in expected his Game 2 start- that game could ultimately decide this series). For another, the Cardinals have plenty of experience, most notably that of Carlos Beltran, the greatest post-season hitter of this and perhaps any era statistically. It’ll be tough, but I predict Cardinals in 5.

Dodgers vs. Braves

A good one. Two teams that are ended up running away with their divisions but who none-the-less prone to being streaky. I, personally, think this series, like most series, will come down to pitching. And in that all-important department, the Dodgers have the advantage. They will able to throw out Clayton Kershaw twice, and still have Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu available as well. The Braves are no slouches and could well win this series, but their lack of Tim Hudson hurts their pitching depth. I agree with what Grantland.com said: “The Braves have a good playoff rotation. The Dodgers have a great one.”  Unlike Grantland, though, I predict Dodgers in 4, while they have them winning in 5.

Come back tomorrow for ALDS predictions.

Preview/Prediction for AL Wild Card Tonight

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It’s the Tampa Bay Rays at the Cleveland Indians tonight, with the winner advancing to the ALDS. While I’ve predicted the past two games correctly, I feel like this one will be tougher. But, ultimately, I still like the Rays here.

My reasons:

  • Pitching, pitching, pitching. Alex Cobb is a better and (slightly) more experienced starter than Danny Salazar, and the Rays bullpen, while tired and sometimes erratic, at least has a defined closer and role players, unlike the by-committee approach that now rules the Indians’ pen.
  • Hitting. Team WAR on Fangraphs for the Rays this season was 30.3, behind only the Red Sox. Team WAR for Indians was 21.8, 15th in MLB. Also, Evan Longoria is on fire. That alone can turn the tide of the game.
  • Fielding: The Rays have an advantage in most advanced fielding statistics and metrics.
  • Momentum: The Rays were playing only two days ago, on Monday. The Indians have been sitting around since Sunday.
  • Playoff experience: The Rays have been here before, most (but certainly not all) of the Indians haven’t.

So, I’m predicting a 5-3 Rays victory tonight.

NL Wild Card Game Preview/Prediction

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Like I said yesterday, it’s really hard to predict any single game, and that holds true for tonight. Sure, you’d think the the Pirates- who handled the Reds in their season-ending series- would win, especially with home field and tens of thousands of screaming fans who have waited since 1992 to see playoff baseball. However, again, one game is hard to predict.

That said, I like the Pirates’ chances tonight.

For one, they have the advantages I mentioned above- having shown they can beat the Reds and also having home field. For another, they are better set up to win tonight in other aspects.

Take pitching, for example. The Pirates will be sending Francisco Liriano to the mound. He has a 1.49 ERA in PNC Park, and has lost a grand total of once there this season. In contrast, the Reds have Johnny Cueto on the mound. While probably the better pitcher than Liriano under most circumstances, this will be only Cueto’s third start after returning from a DL stint and that carries huge risk, especially since the Pirates have a better bullpen than the Reds.

While, admittedly, the Pirates’ bullpen has had it’s ups and downs just like every other bullpen, the fact is that Fangraphs lists Pittsburgh’s relievers has having near two more Wins Above Replacement than the Reds’ bullpen. Although it’s something of a simplification, this essentially means that a team with the Pittsburgh bullpen would win two more games than, say, a team with the Reds bullpen. That might not seem a lot, but when you remember how razor-thin some races are in baseball, it can make a big difference. Also, I’m not exactly confident in how well Dusty Baker will do managing the bullpen in tonight’s game, although admittedly managerial comparisons are sometimes heresay.

However, the Reds do have two advantages. The first is the x-factor that is Billy Hamilton. If he gets on base- whether by getting a hit or by pinch-running- then the whole game situation could change, as his speed provides both a real (he can actually steal bases and beat throws) and psychological advantage. The second is that they are better at getting on base.

However, in general, I’m going with the momentum and home field advantage: I predict the Pirates win 6-3. Just don’t quote me on it… unless I’m right.

AL Wild Card Tiebreaker Preview

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Well, Game 163 is tonight, as the Texas Rangers host the Tampa Bay Rays for the right to advance to the Wild Card Game against Cleveland on Wednesday.

It is, of course, folly to try and predict a single baseball game. There are so many actors and factors (a rhyme!) that are in play, and a single strange hop or blown call can change everything. Luck will have just as much to do with the result of this game as skill.

That said, the old axiom that good pitching beats good hitting suggests that the Rays have the advantage tonight. Why? Because they have David Price on the mound. While Price was only 9-8 this year while Texas’ Martin Perez was 10-5, win-loss records are misleading. Instead, look at how Price has a lower ERA than Perez, and how Price has a better WAR than Perez, and how Price has experience pitching in big games while this will be Perez’s first rodeo.

Of course, that experience could cut both ways. You see,  Price’s relative veteran status means that the Rangers have had plenty of times to face him. They know him firsthand, and while that might not save them if he is having a good day, it certainly evens the odds a bit. Alex Rios, for example, is a career .435 hitter against Price in 23 at-bats, including two home runs. Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre also have good numbers against Price, and Nelson Cruz– back from his Biogenesis suspension- has had three home runs in his career against the Rays’ ace, including one in the 2010 postseason.

By comparison, only four members of the Rays have ever faced Perez, so they will be going mainly on scouting and video. Maybe this will mean nothing, as the Rays’ contain plenty of hitters who are just naturally gifted.

Which, of course, leads to how these two lineups stack up. In general, I’d say this is a slight advantage to Texas, especially with Cruz back. Texas, statistically, has hit better for average and power this year than Tampa, although not overwhelmingly so, while Tampa has a edge in getting on base. The two are ridiculously close when it comes to OPS, with Tampa at .737 and Texas at .736. However, Texas didn’t have Cruz these past few months due to his suspension, so I hypothesize that his addition will provide the ever-so-slight edge for the Rangers.

So, the starting matchup favors Tampa, but the lineups will likely favor Texas. What does that leave us with? Bullpens, fielding and managing.

Starting with the last of the three: Joe Maddon is unquestionably the better strategic mind than Ron Washington, using advanced metrics and unconventional tactics while Ron Washington… doesn’t.

Next, fielding. This is tough, as the advanced fielding statistics are really complicated, Gold Gloves are subjective and the traditional statistics are often misleading. And, I got to say, it all depends on what stat you look at… so I’m calling this one a push.

And so, finally, the bullpens. I give a slight advantage to the Rangers, at least assuming there aren’t any screwups. Their bullpen was better statistically than the Rays’ bullpen this season, although admittedly Fernando Rodney was erratic all year for Tampa, going from Cy Young to Cy Yuk and back again several times, so who knows?

So, there you go, it looks like a very evenly-matched contest, but I’m going to go with the Rays, 4-2. I just don’t feel like going against David Price.

The 2013 Season Prediction Spectacular

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Okay, so maybe it’s not so spectacular. But here’s my predictions for division winners, awards, etc.:

American League:

East: Tampa Bay Rays
Central: Detroit Tigers (best record)
West: Oakland Athletics
Wild Cards: Blue Jays and Angels
MVP: Mike Trout
Cy Young: Justin Verlander
Rookie of the Year: Jurickson Profar
Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon

National League:

East: Washington Nationals (best record)
Central: Cincinnati Reds
West: San Francisco Giants
Wild Cards: Cardinals and Dodgers
MVP:  Joey Votto
Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
Rookie of the Year: Oscar Taveras
Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson
World Series: Nationals over Tigers, 6 games.

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Previous Previews for 2013:

First Things That Pop Into My Mind

162 Things That Will Happen: Parts 1, 2, 3 and 4

2013 MLB Preview part 5: 162 Things Guaranteed to Happen in the 2013 MLB Season (Part 4)

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Okay, part 1 of the 162 can be found here. Part 2 is here. Part 3 is here. Now, the final installment of the 162 things guaranteed to happen in the 2013 MLB Season. Go below the jump and buckle up, because some of these could be weird/tongue-in-cheek, because, hey, there are only so many reasonable predictions somebody can make.

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2013 MLB Preview part 4: 162 Things Guaranteed to Happen in the 2013 MLB Season (Part 3)

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Part one can be found here. Part two can be found here. Go below the jump for even more…

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